Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Bradish One of 3 AL East Players to Target

Prop bet #1: Bradish in a bad-ish spot

The Baltimore Orioles are one of baseball's most exciting teams in 2023. At 44-27, they own the third-best record in the American League and they have mostly piled up that record thanks to a dynamic young lineup and an elite bullpen. 

One area where the O’s would love to see some improvement is their starting pitching. Right now, they just have a bunch of regular dudes whose job it is to just get through five innings and hand the ball off to that lockdown pen. Tonight’s starter Kyle Bradish is one of those dudes.

Bradish is pitching to a solid, if unspectacular, 3.90 ERA but he may be seeing his fair share of good luck. The right-hander has an expected ERA of 4.50 and his .266 opponent expected batting average and .437 expected slugging percentage rank both rank in the 29th percentile or worse. On top of that, he doesn’t have great swing-and-miss stuff with a strikeout rate of just 20.7%.

And if you were to bet that regression was to take place against any team, why not the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays?

The Rays continue to roll along, with an MLB-best record of 51-24 and sit five games ahead of the Orioles in the East. They also feast on right-handed pitching, ranking seventh in batting average and first in both OPS and wRC+ vs. righties this season.

They have also been a problem for Bradish in the past. He made two starts against the Rays last season, and neither went particularly well. In the first, he allowed five runs on five hits in 5 1/3 innings. The second was worse, as he surrendered six runs on 11 hits in just 4 1/3.

He has also allowed three or more earned runs in each of his last five starts on the road. I’m betting he makes it six tonight.

Kyle Bradish prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: How deep is Stanton's valley?

The Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees open a three-game series in the Bronx with an intriguing pitcher’s duel as George Kirby toes the rubber against Gerrit Cole. Everyone knows who Cole is but Kirby is one of the up-and-coming young staters in the American League, and that’s not a good thing for Giancarlo Stanton.

The Yankees slugger has always been a streaky hitter, full of peaks and valleys. And Stanton is definitely in a valley at the moment. A wide, far-stretching valley.

Stanton is hitting just .204 with a .708 OPS, which would be the lowest of his career. The numbers don’t get better against right-handed pitchers where the batting average drops to .192 and the OPS to .691. And if you can believe it, his current slump is even worse.

The former home run king has just three hits in his last 39 plate appearances. That works out to a stunningly low .088 batting average and a .382 OPS, and I’m betting he doesn’t bust out of this slump against Kirby.

The 25-year-old right-hander has been very effective this season, pitching to a 3.45 expected ERA, and is limiting opponents to a .397 expected slugging percentage. Kirby mostly uses a combination of a four-seam fastball and a sinker while mixing in a curveball for good measure.

He throws those fastballs more than 60% of the time and Stanton should expect a heavy dose tonight as he has just a .206 expected batting average and a .399 xSLG vs. fastballs this season.

With Kirby then able to hand the ball off to one of baseball's best bullpens (first in xFIP, fourth in K/9) it could be another long night for Stanton and I’m taking him to have a big ol’ donut at the dish.

Giancarlo Stanton prop: Under 0.5 hits (+170 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Verdugo keeps rolling

I’m starting a petition to disband the American League Central, where the division-leading Minnesota Twins sit one game below .500 at 36-37 heading into tonight’s matchup with the last-place team from the AL East — the 38-35 Boston Red Sox.

The Red Sox have won five in a row and are crushing the baseball at the moment. Despite this, it’s the Twins who are home favorites as they hand the ball to Bailey Ober for this matchup.

One of the guys crushing baseballs for the BoSox is Alex Verdugo. The outfielder is on an impressive 10-game hitting streak where he owns a .395 batting average and a 1.005 OPS. That includes multi-hit games in each of his last five contests.

And he’ll have a great chance to keep that streak going with a juicy matchup vs. Ober. The Twins right-hander has a solid 2.65 ERA but he’s another starter due for some regression. Ober’s expected ERA is more than a run higher at 3.89 and he is surrendering a .430 expected slugging percentage to opponents. 

Verdugo is also hitting .321 with a .900 OPS this season when facing right-handed pitchers and despite the small sample size, Verdugo is 2-for-4 in his career vs. Ober with a .848 xSLG. Verdugo has gone Over 1.5 total bases in six of his last 10 games and in each of his last five. At decent plus money, I’m backing him to do so once again.

Alex Verdugo prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at DraftKings)