Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Miami's Duo Strikes Again

Prop bet #1: Turner’s turbo time

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies got rained out last night but it looks like all systems go for today’s matinee with no rain in the forecast but heavy winds blowing in. With Trea Turner getting on base at a better clip of late and paying +390 to swipe a bag, the 12-for-12 base-stealer is a great target this afternoon.

Turner was paying closer to +300 yesterday vs. rookie pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver but his projection is very similar today and the price is much better. THE BAT is projecting 0.29 stolen bases which is the second-highest of the game behind Ronald Acuna Jr. at 0.32 and his much shorter +225.

Turner has underwhelmed this season, to put it mildly. He currently has an OPS south of .700 but has put together a decent 14-day stretch where he's getting on base at a better clip and sporting an OBP 40 points higher than his season average. 

He has four swipes over his last nine games and might not have to see catcher Sean Murphy (hamstring) who is one of the better caught-stealing backstops in baseball.

The move from Smith-Shawver to Bryce Elder is a slight downgrade but that is priced in here at the generous +390 odds. I’m betting a half-unit on a guy who has led the league in stolen bases twice over his career. 

If you’re really looking for a big ticket, Turner plus Acuna to steal a bag is +1,400 at bet365 and was +1,000 yesterday.  

Trea Turner prop: Over 0.5 stolen bases (+390)

Prop bet #2: Soft stick

Carson Kelly is not a household name and there’s reason for that. He’s a 28-year-old catcher that's hitting .118 this season with minimal at-bats and is a career .222 hitter. However, when books are hanging +155 odds for the No. 9 hitter to go 0-fer, I’m all in.

Kelly has started five games this year and completed four of them. He’s a slight pinch-hit risk at 26% and THE BAT X projects 3.53 plate appearances for the right-handed hitter who is a career .205 hitter vs. right-handed pitchers. 

He also has a legit 10% walk rate which is great news as a walk is much better than a ball in play when playing this prop. 

Washington starter Jake Irvin is not a great pitcher and that's likely why bettors are getting solid odds here. However, despite a 5.25 ERA, Irvin is a walk machine at 22 over 36 innings and doesn’t allow a lot of hits (36 this season). Command is an issue for the right-hander and Kelly could be very patient at the plate.

The bottom will likely fall out of this market and I’d play it to +130. 

Carson Kelly prop: Under 0.5 hits (+155)

Prop bet #3: Dynamic duo

Miami’s Jorge Soler is batting behind a player in Luis Arraez who's hitting .398 and getting on base at will. That is giving the No. 2 hitter plenty of opportunities to plate runs as Soler has nine RBI over his last 10 games. He's on the board at +215 to knock in a run tonight. 

He's also quietly putting together a very solid season as he leads the Miami Marlins in ISO, slugging, HRs, and RBI. His .291 ISO ranks fifth in all of baseball and the numbers could be better with a .262 BABIP. He also ranks in the Top 15 in wRC+ and wOBA across the entire league. 

Considering he has a runner on base for basically 50% of his at-bats, those power numbers work well and make an RBI at +215 a +EV play today.

The matchup vs. Mitch Keller is certainly playing into the price here but Arraez hits everyone and Keller owns a 6.14 ERA over his last five starts and has given up 20 runs (five home runs) over that stretch. 

THE BAT is projecting 0.65 RBI, which is a solid 25% better than his implied odds. 

Jorge Soler prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+215)