In a somewhat annoying move, the MLB has given us just five games on the Friday schedule, one day removed from an Opening Day where all 30 teams took the diamond. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of baseball betting value to be found in the player prop odds.
Tonight, we look at a pair of total bases props for a couple of National League West stars who have been feasting on these specific pitching matchups. And Robbie Ray takes the ball for the Mariners against the Guardians tonight. Will Cleveland’s struggles against southpaws carry over from last season?
Here are my best MLB player props for Friday, March 31.
MLB props for March 31
- Machado Over 1.5 total bases (+130)
- Ray Over 17.5 outs recorded (+105)
- Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+105)
Picks made on 3/31/2023 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best MLB bets today
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Prop bet #1: Machado fricassees Freeland
The Colorado Rockies were able to upset the San Diego Padres on Opening Day, getting to starter Blake Snell and earning a 7-2 victory. The Rockies will try to start their season with a winning streak when they hand the ball to Kyle Freeland in Game 2 of this four-game set.
Unfortunately, Freeland has had, um, varying results against the Padres. The left-hander made five starts against San Diego last season alone. While he had a couple of OK performances against them, overall the numbers aren’t the prettiest. Freeland pitched to a 6.75 ERA in those starts while allowing the Padres to hit .327 with a .968 OPS.
One of the Padres who has done the most damage against Freeland is, unsurprisingly, Manny Machado. The Padres' star third baseman is coming off a fantastic season in which he hit .298 with a .898 OPS while whacking 32 dingers and driving in 102 runs.
Machado produced one of the Padres' two runs yesterday, going 1-for-3 with an RBI, and he could be in for an even bigger night against Freeland. Machado owns a .316 average in 38 career at-bats vs. the Rockies’ southpaw, which includes six doubles.
The advanced numbers are even better. Machado has an expected batting average of .340, and an expected slugging percentage of .565 vs. Freeland.
Machado will do his best to help his team get its first win of the season, so I’m backing him to hit the Over on his total bases prop at solid plus-money.
Manny Machado Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+130)
Prop bet #2: Ray soaks up outs
The pitcher’s duel we were promised on Opening Day between the Cleveland Guardians and the Seattle Mariners didn’t disappoint. Shane Bieber and Luis Castillo were dealing before the Mariners struck late to secure a 3-0 win in the series opener. And the Guardians could have trouble scoring runs again in Game 2.
In 2022, the Guardians were a scrappy lineup that was able to manufacture runs, particularly against right-handed pitching. But tonight, they’ll face off against Mariners’ left-hander Robbie Ray.
Ray regressed a bit during his first season in Seattle, a year after winning the American League Cy Young Award. He saw his ERA bump up to 3.71 and his strikeout numbers dipped, going from 11.5 per nine innings to 10.1. So, it was encouraging to see his strikeouts per nine bump up to 13.8 in Spring Training.
Ray has also dominated the Guardians. The southpaw made two starts against Cleveland last season and didn’t allow a single run over 13 innings on nine hits while striking out 10. And that could continue tonight.
While the Guardians had success against right-handers last year, their splits against lefties weren’t as pretty. Cleveland ranked 20th in batting average and 28th in OPS when facing righties last season.
With that being the case, I’m looking at Ray to pitch fairly deep into this game. He pitched at least six innings (18 outs) in both outings against Cleveland, and lasted six or more innings 22 times during his 32 starts last season.
Robbie Ray Prop: Over 17.5 outs recorded (+105)
Prop bet #3: Freeman feasts
Breaking news. The Los Angeles Dodgers are still a good baseball team.
It was tough sledding for the first few innings against Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen on Opening Day, but the Dodgers settled down, and their still-stacked lineup went to work in an eventual 8-2 victory. It could be more of the same in Game 2 when the D-backs hand the ball to Merrill Kelly.
The Dodgers have had Kelly’s number for the most part during his career. To be fair, a lot of guys have had trouble with the Dodgers in recent years, but last season was particularly rough for Kelly. The D-backs right-hander made five starts against the Dodgers in 2022, and he pitched to an ugly 8.25 ERA in those contests, allowing the Dodgers to hit for a .330 average and a 1.045 OPS.
It shouldn’t be surprising that Freddie Freeman has been a thorn in Kelly’s side. The Dodgers' first baseman is coming off another outstanding season, where he hit .325 with a .511 slugging percentage.
Freeman picked up right where he left off, collecting two hits on Opening Day, and he’ll have a great chance to keep that going tonight. The former MVP is an impressive 6-for-16 (.375) with four doubles and a dinger in his career vs. Kelly.
That means I’m homing in on the Over for Freeman’s total bases prop tonight, which you can still get at plus-money.
Freddie Freeman Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+105)
