Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Freeman Stays Hot Against Lopez

A new week of MLB action begins with 12 games on the diamond for hungry baseball bettors to dig into. That means there will be no shortage of options when it comes to the MLB player prop markets.

Patrick Corbin may not be the worst starter in baseball this season, but it's still Fade Patrick Corbin Day as the Washington Nationals take on the New York Mets. Meanwhile, Charlie Morton gets the tough task of trying to end the Atlanta Braves' skid against the hard-hitting Texas Rangers. And Freddie Freeman is in on one of his patented grooves as the Los Angeles Dodgers welcome the Minnesota Twins to town.

I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best free MLB player props for Monday, May 15.

MLB props for May 15

• Corbin Over 6.5 hits (-115)
• Morton Under 17.5 outs (+140)
• Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+125)

Picks made on 5/15/2023 at 12:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best MLB bets today

Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.

An afternoon of raking

Patrick Corbin hasn’t been the worst pitcher in baseball this season. Wait. Before you go, hear me out. It's still Fade Patrick Corbin Day. He hasn't been the absolute worst, but Corbin is still pretty bad.

The embattled Washington Nationals starter has actually allowed three earned runs or fewer and pitched at least into the sixth inning in five consecutive starts heading into this afternoon’s matchup with the New York Mets. 

However, Corbin is still getting whacked around a lot. The lefty is allowing opponents to hit for a .312 expected batting average. That ranks in the bottom 3% in the league. He also owns a sub-par expected ERA of 5.61 with a 1.42 WHIP.

Corbin has done a decent job of giving the Nationals some length. The southpaw is averaging nearly six innings per start over his last seven outings. That’s partly because the Nats don’t boast a ton of better options coming out of the bullpen. And to me, it all translates into more opportunities for opponents to rack up hits. 

Now, you might say “Haven’t the Mets been underperforming at the plate this season?” Well, yes. But a matchup with Corbin might be what they need to get back on track. The combination of Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, Tommy Pham, and Mark Canha are hitting .326 during their careers against Corbin.

The veteran is allowing 1.22 hits per inning this season. If he can get into the sixth frame again, I see him going over 6.5 hits allowed in this matchup. That's happened in six of his eight starts in 2023.

Patrick Corbin prop: Over 6.5 hits allowed (-115 at bet365)

Charlie and the hit factory

The Atlanta Braves have lost four straight and are coming off getting swept in a three-game series over the weekend against the Toronto Blue Jays. Now they head off to face the Texas Rangers on the road, and the Braves will hand the ball to Charlie Morton while hoping to end their skid. But that may be easier said than done.

Despite an ERA that says 3.22, the season hasn't exactly been going smoothly for the right-hander.

For starters, Morton’s strikeout numbers are way down by his standards. His strikeout rate sits at 21.9%, and he's striking out 8.6 batters per nine innings. That's his lowest production since Morton's Pittsburgh days all the way back in 2015.

And he's been hit more regularly with those strikeout numbers down. His .256 opponent's expected batting average and .442 opponent's expected slugging percentage each rank in the bottom 37% of the league. Additionally, his walk rate is higher than it's been since 2016. All that contact means his expected ERA is more than a run-and-a-half higher, sitting at 4.79. So Morton's season could come to a head on Monday in Texas.

The Rangers' lineup has been one of the toughest to navigate in 2023. The team leads MLB in scoring after plating a massive 6.45 runs per game, and the Rangers rank fifth in batting average, sixth in OPS, and fifth in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching.

Morton’s outs recorded prop is sitting at 17.5, which means he needs to get through six innings for the Over to cash. He's averaging 5.8 innings per start, and I have him falling below that number against this very good Rangers lineup. That makes this +140 price on the Under too tempting to pass up.

Charlie Morton prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (+140 at bet365)

A familiar foe

It’s a matchup of division leaders when the American League Central-leading Minnesota Twins visit the National League West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers are slight -120 home favorites, but they'll be in tough against Twins starter Pablo Lopez.

Lopez has been solid during his first six weeks with the Twins, pitching to a 3.38 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a .212 batting average. And few in the Dodgers’ lineup have logged much experience against the Minnesota right-hander, except for Freddie Freeman.

The Dodgers first baseman is all too familiar with Lopez thanks to their time spent together in the National League East, when Freeman was with the Atlanta Braves and Lopez was pitching for the Miami Marlins. And Freeman is one of the few who's been enjoying a decent amount of success against Lopez.

Freeman is 11-33 (.333) with four doubles over 36 career plate appearances against Lopez, and he's struck out just four times in those matchups. The 2020 MVP is also in the middle of another sizzling streak. Freeman is currently on a four-game run when he's gone 7-15 hitting with four extra-base knocks. He's hitting .327 with a 1.024 OPS in May.

Additionally, while Lopez has been solid, his WHIP has been ticking up to a much more mediocre 1.36 over his last five starts.

I’m backing Freeman to stay hot in a familiar matchup and taking the Over 1.5 on his total bases, which is appealing at plus money. He's cashed this Over in eight of his 12 games this month.

Freddie Freeman prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at DraftKings)

Pages related to this topic