Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Goldschmidt Continues Mashing Against Brewers

It’s a getaway day on the diamond which means there are MLB player props to bet on all day long, and with all 30 teams in action, there is no shortage of options.

Today, I take a look at Ross Stripling, whose undefined role with the Giants seems to be affecting him in a negative way. Then I highlight a pair of total bases props for a couple of the National Leagues' best sluggers in the Cardinals’ Paul Goldschmidt and Padres’ Juan Soto.

I dig through the MLB odds and bring you my best MLB player prop picks for Wednesday, May 17.

MLB props for May 17

• Stripling Under 15.5 outs (-120)
• Soto 2+ TB (+150)
• Goldschmidt Over 1.5 TB (+140)

Picks made on 5/17/2023 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best MLB bets today

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Prop bet #1: Ross gets wrecked

Ross Stripling pitched himself into a 2-year $25 million contract with the San Francisco Giants thanks to a fantastic 2022 campaign with the Toronto Blue Jays. Unfortunately, Stripling and the Giants are still waiting for the guy from last season to show up.

Thanks to some injuries, Stripling stepped into the Blue Jays rotation and flourished. He finished the year with a 3.57 expected ERA, thanks in part to using a changeup much more than he ever used to, lead to a lot of soft contact. He also did an excellent job of limiting walks.

His first season in San Francisco has pretty much been the exact opposite. Maybe that’s because his role with the Giants isn’t as defined, as he has bounced back and forth between the rotation and bullpen, but whatever it is, the numbers have been ugly.

The right hander is pitching to a 7.31 xERA while surrendering a .303 opponent-expected batting average and a .571 opponent-expected slugging percentage this season —  all ranking in the Bottom 7% of MLB. And it won’t get any easier when he takes the mound against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.

Philadelphia has one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, particularly now that Bryce Harper is back. The Phillies rank second in batting average, sixth in OPS, and eighth in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers this season.

With Stripling going back and forth between starting and relief work, he’s likely not as stretched out as he would like. He hasn’t pitched more than five innings in any appearance this season, and I think five innings is his best-case scenario against this lethal Phillies lineup. The Under on 15.5 outs recorded looks like a solid play today.

Ross Stripling Prop: Uner 15.5 outs recorded (-120)

Prop bet #2: Juan too strong

Juan Soto had an absolutely dreadful month of April. Heading into May, he was hitting just .202 with a .757 OPS and just eight extra-base hits through his first 29 games. Then May started... and just like that, he looks like the guy who the San Diego Padres sold the farm for at last year’s trade deadline. Soto will have a great opportunity to stay hot when he digs in against the Kansas City Royals today.

Since the calendar flipped over to May, Soto is hitting .365 with a 1.149 OPS and 12 extra-base hits in 14 games this month. And slow start aside, he’s mashed right handers all season long, getting to them for a .304 average and a 1.042 OPS.

Soto will face off against a variety of pitchers on Wednesday with the Royals choosing to have a bullpen day, starting with Carlos Hernandez. The righty has been so-so, pitching to a 4.40 expected ERA and a .257 opponent expected batting average.

K.C. is likely hoping to get two innings out of Hernandez before using a multitude of relievers, which isn’t a good thing. Kansas City’s bullpen ranks 27th in ERA and WHIP, and 25th in opponent batting average.

Soto is so locked in right now, I don’t think it matters who the Royals throw out there. He has gone Over 1.5 total bases in 11 of his last 16 games and we are getting a +150 price tag for him to do so once again. Sign me up for that any day of the week.

Juan Soto Prop: 2+ total bases (+150)

Prop bet #3: Staying golden

The St. Louis Cardinals are finally starting to hit with some consistency and as a result, they’ve won seven of their last nine games overall. Someone the Cards have been able to rely on all along is Mr. Dependable himself, Paul Goldschmidt. St. Louis' first baseman is in a groove at the dish and he’ll look to keep that going tonight against the rival Milwaukee Brewers.

While the rest of the Cardinals’ lineup has had more ups than down through the first month and a half of the season, Goldschmidt just continues to do his thing. The former MVP is hitting .311 with a .921 OPS this season and has been even better lately, bumping those numbers up to .346 and 1.016 — including eight extra-base hits over his last 12 games. Tonight he’ll dig in against a familiar foe in the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes.

This was supposed to be the season where Burnes cashed in on his years of dominance in Milwaukee. But so far in 2023, the results have been a little underwhelming by his standards. The 3.62 expected ERA is fine, but it’s his strikeout and walk rate which are concerning.

Since coming into the Big Leagues, Burnes has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball and has had a 31.1% K-rate since 2018. This season it’s sitting at 21%. He also has his highest walk rate since 2020, with both numbers ranking in the Bottom 37% of MLB. That’s not exactly the form you want to have to go against a guy like Goldschmidt, who has had Corbin’s number even at the best of times.

Goldschmidt is an impressive 10-for-29 (.345) with a double and a dinger in his career vs. Burnes. Mix in a Brewers’ bullpen that ranks 18th in ERA, and 19th in WHIP and opponent batting average, and Goldschmidt is primed to have success at the plate tonight.

The Over on Goldschmidt’s 1.5 total bases is sitting at +140 because of Burnes’ name, not his current form. He’s cashed the Over in three of his last five games and I’m betting he does so in this matchup.

Paul Goldschmidt Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+140 at bet365)

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