It’s the May long weekend, so let’s sit back, relax, crack open some brews and win a few player props along the way, and with all 30 teams in action on Friday night there is no shortage of MLB odds options.
Speaking of brews, the Brewers’ Willy Adames might need a break considering his current slump. Then I highlight a matchup of two teams that were early-season surprises but are now trending in opposite directions when the Pirates take on the Diamondbacks. And Seiya Suzuki will look to keep swinging a hot stick when the Cubbies play host to the Phillies.
I break down the odds and bring you my best MLB player prop picks for Friday, May 19.
MLB props for May 19
Picks made on 5/19/2023 at 12:50 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Diamondback in the rough
The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Pittsburgh Pirates have been two of the better stories in baseball so far this season. But while the Pirates have come back down to Earth in May, the Diamondbacks' success looks a little more sustainable.
Everyone thought if the D-backs were going to take the next step in their development, it would be thanks to a starting rotation anchored by Zac Gallen. Which isn’t incorrect. Gallen has been awesome. But really, it’s been the revelation that this lineup is legit.
Arizona boasts a balanced lineup that's sixth in the MLB in scoring at 5.23 runs per game, and while it's not a lineup with huge names, there aren’t many holes to find either, particularly for right-handed pitchers.
The D-backs rank third in batting average and fourth in OPS and wRC+. Oh, and they have the lowest K-rate in baseball when facing righties.
That sounds like it could be a tough day at the office for Pirates’ right-hander Johan Oviedo. The 25-year-old, like many of his Buccos’ teammates, started the year well but has started to see a regression to the mean.
Oviedo went through a three-start stretch against the Dodgers, Nationals, and Blue Jays where he pitched to a 12.08 ERA and gave up a .997 OPS. And while he's coming off a start where he held the Orioles to just one run on four hits over five innings, you can make the case he was lucky in that matchup. He also issued five walks and the O’s were just unable to get that clutch hit.
Free passes have been an issue all season long for Oviedo, ranking in the Bottom 31% in walk rate. Those walks have resulted in a 1.68 WHIP this season, and giving a good-hitting team like the D-backs extra chances is not a great strategy for success.
Oviedo has allowed three or more earned runs in half of his starts this season and in three of the last four. He’s trending in the wrong direction going against a solid lineup. At even money, I’m backing him to allow at least three more earned runs tonight.
Johan Oviedo prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (+100)
Flat brew
The Milwaukee Brewers are 24-19 and leading the National League Central. So, suffice to say, they're having a solid start to the season. That is, unless they're facing left-handed pitching. And today, they go against one of the best southpaws in baseball when they visit Shane McClanahan and the Tampa Bay Rays.
More specifically, it means it could be a rough night at the dish for Brewers shortstop Willy Adames. The former Tampa Bay Ray has always been more known for his glove than his bat, but 2023 has been particularly rough for him.
Adames is hitting just .210 with a .682 OPS this season and currently, he’s in one heck of a slump. Adames has just three hits in his last 34 plate appearances. He’s hitting just .100 with 12 strikeouts over that stretch. Not great.
Normally, you might think a matchup with a lefty could help break Adames out of that funk. But two things. One: Adames has reverse splits this season. And two: McClanahan is not your average lefty.
Adames is hitting just .156 with a .554 OPS when facing left-handed pitching this season. While McClanahan is arguably the most dominant in baseball. He’s pitching to a 3.42 expected ERA, and is limiting opponents to a .205 expected batting average while striking out nearly 30% of batters he has faced thanks in large part to a fastball that averages 97 miles per hour.
This game has 0-fer written all over it for Adames. I’m taking the Under on his total hits in tonight’s matchup.
Willy Adames prop: Under 0.5 hits (+110)
Clubbing Cub
The way the Chicago Cubs lineup has gelled through the first seven weeks of the MLB season has been impressive and Japanese import Seiya Suzuki has been a big reason why.
The Cubs outfielder is just in his second Big League season since coming over from the NPB, and he’s been a cornerstone of this offense. Suzuki and he’s been locked in since the calendar flipped over to May. Suzuki is hitting .321 with a 1.035 OPS over 16 games this month but he’s been on a real heater over the last week.
The right-handed hitter has recorded 10 knocks in his last 25 at-bats, including seven extra-base hits. That’s good for a .400 average and a 1.484 OPS, and Suzuki will have a great opportunity to keep this heater going when he digs in at the plate tonight vs. the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phillies' Ranger Suarez will take the mound, who is making just his second start of the season. The lefty missed the early part of the season with an elbow injury. His return was a little rough, allowing three runs on seven hits in four innings of work vs. the Colorado Rockies.
Last season, Suarez pitched to a solid 3.78 expected ERA. However, he pitches to contact and allowed opponents to hit for a .241 expected batting average, while ranking in the Bottom 26% in strikeout rate. He also allowed right-handed hitters to get to him for a .263 average.
Then, Suarez will hand the ball off to a struggling bullpen that is missing one of its best relievers in Jose Alvarado. The Phillies relievers rank 20th in ERA, and 24th in WHIP.
Oh, did I mention Suzuki mashes southpaws? He is hitting a ridiculous .394 with a .990 OPS when facing lefties this season. Meaning the +165 price on the Over 1.5 total bases for Suzuki is too tempting to pass up. He’s gone Over this number in six of his last seven games.
Seiya Suzuki prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+165)
