We got a jam-packed MLB schedule today with things kicking off at noon and going to 7:10 p.m ET. With all this action, we've dug into the props markets and have found a trio of MLB player props that we're willing to put our own money on.
The sample sizes may be small at this point, but we're happy to back an AL MVP dark horse, fade one of the best young shortstops in the game and dig into some advanced plate discipline stats to find a tough matchup for a pitcher who was solid in his first outing.
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MLB props for April 13
Picks made on 4/13/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
Milling the Under with Merril
Arizona’s Merril Kelly was sensational in his season debut versus the Padres. The right-hander went four scoreless innings, struck out seven, and launched 51 of his 75 pitches for strikes. The strikeouts might be an outlier though as Kelly is a career 7.7 K/9 pitcher and now has to face a Houston team that doesn’t strike out.
The Astros have struck out at just 16.2% this season which is the fourth-lowest mark in baseball. In yesterday’s 2-1 Houston win, the team was fanned just twice. If Kelly isn’t going to get deep after needing 75 pitches to get through four innings of solid ball, we don’t like his chances to record 15 outs which would severely limit his chances of hitting four K's.
The Astros don’t chase (fourth-best O-swing percentage), make a ton of contact with an 88.8% Z-contact percentage, and see a ton of pitches. While some might look at Kelly’s seven K’s in his first outing and think they're getting a deal at 3.5 total strikeouts, the fact is this is a bad matchup for his strikeout prop.
Pick: Merrill Kelly Under 3.5 strikeouts (-104 at FanDuel)
Bo knows the O-Zone
Bo Bichette is one for his last 14 at-bats and there has been an awful lot of swing-and-misses in the shortstop’s approach of late. Of those 14 at-bats spanning three games, Bichette has struck out seven times and now has to face the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole who he's struggled against in the past.
Cole got into a little problem in his first start but the ceremonial delay may have been a factor. A visibly frustrated Cole allowed the first four batters to reach base in his opening start but he settled in after that.
His velocity was fine and he exited after 68 pitches. Over the last two seasons, Bichette is 4-for-21 versus Cole with two singles and five strikeouts.
The Yankees bullpen is also a great unit to shut down the Jays’ No. 2 hitter. The New York relievers lead the league in WAR through 27 1-3 innings, have allowed just 13 hits, and own a 0.99 ERA.
Bichette is fifth on the team with a 33.3% hard-hit percentage and has been chasing more than 50% of his swings on balls that are outside the zone which is the most on the club. He’s also swinging at 62.3% of all pitches which is the fourth-highest mark in all of baseball.
Bichette will turn it around but with the matchup and a solid bullpen in New York, tonight might be a great night to bet against him. We can also get bailed out by an extra-base hit by the hard-swinging shortstop.
Pick: Bo Bichette Under 0.5 singles (+130 at Caesars)
Running Robert racks up runs
Entering the season, Chicago’s Luis Robert was one of the more popular dark horses for the AL MVP. After a 6-for-16 start to the season which includes a homer, four stolen bases, five runs, and a hit in every game, the outfielder now sits at +1,800 to take home the league’s MVP, just behind, Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, Vladimir Guerrero, and Byron Buxton.
He doesn’t have a great matchup tonight versus Seattle’s Robbie Ray but Robert did crush left-handed pitching last season and slashed .397/.441/.794 versus southpaws. That 1.235 OPS vs. LHP was the second-best in baseball last season and his wOBA and wRC+ vs. LHP was also the second-best in baseball.
With his ability to make contact (just one strikeout), get on base, swipe bags, and followed in the order by some thumpers, Robert is the best value to score a run at even money for the White Sox.
Tony LaRussa knows how to manufacture runs and with the former AL Cy Young winner on the bump, getting Robert into scoring position is likely a point of emphasis for the White Sox’s bench boss.
Pick: Luis Robert Over 0.5 runs (+100)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $80.23 on a $10 bet?
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