The MLB season is here and with it, all the glorious prop markets. We’re digging into today’s slate and finding our three favorite MLB player props.
We’re starting with the new face of the Cubs, fading a contact-pitcher's strikeout prop market and hitting the Under on recorded outs with one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball.
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MLB props for April 15
Picks made on 4/15/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
Swinging Suzuki
Seiya Suzuki has made the transition from the Nippon Professional Baseball league to the MLB seamlessly which is not something many have done before him.
He’s started off his American career 7 for 19 and currently sports the league’s No. 15 wOBA of .551. He has 17 total bases across 17 at-bats and has already launched three homers.
He’s currently hitting fifth in the Cubs lineup and has at least one hit in each of his six games. He hit an RBI double in his first at-bat in Coors Field yesterday and gets another matchup in the hitter-friendly park tonight versus Colorado starter German Marquez who pitches better away from the thin air.
His ability to hit for extra bases is a big advantage for an RBI tonight, especially after the No. 2, 3 and 4 batters for the Cubs went 6 for 12 last night in a 5-2 win.
Baseball is a game of adjustments and the onus seems to be on the pitchers here in the matchup with Suzuki who is giving the Cubs fanbase some life.
He could also hit the Over with nobody on base as this is a guy who hit a home run every 18 at-bats while in Japan and is just hitting his prime at the age of 27.
Pick: Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 RBI (+140)
Mikolas missing the mark
St. Louis’ Miles Mikolas will make his second start this season against the Brewers tonight. Mikolas was underwhelming in his first start recording just 11 total outs with only two of those coming via the strikeout.
That start also came against the Pirates who currently sit inside the top half of the league in strikeout percentage. He threw 77 pitches in the outing and created just two swinging strikes. Now, the former Yomiuri Giant will face the Brewers who are seeing a ton of pitches thanks to a Top-10 BB% and striking out less than the Pirates.
Mikolas doesn’t miss many bats and has a career K/9 of 6.6 in the major leagues. He made one start at American Family Field last season and even though he went seven innings, he still managed to strike out just two batters.
The BAT projection has him at 5.5 K/9 this season which doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in his strikeout game. He also has one of the best defenses behind so pitching to contact is his M/O.
With a swing percentage that sits well below 10% and Mikolas having only thrown 44 innings a season ago, we’re not high on Mikolas missing many bats today or getting deep into the game.
We're taking the plunge on the modest total of 3.5 at serious plus money.
Pick: Miles Mikolas Under 3.5 strikeouts (+136)
Not too deep with Cease
White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease will make his second start of the season today at home versus the Rays. The 26-year-old right-hander was pretty dominant in his first outing versus the Tigers where he struck out eight batters but recorded only 15 outs after exiting with 79 pitches thrown.
He generated a ton of misses (33% CSW) and might be a popular pick for a strikeout market today, but we’re more interested in hitting his Under 17.5 recorded outs at BetMGM which is a full run different from his market at Caesars.
Cease is an elite strikeout pitcher and finished with the best K/9 in the AL last season and the fifth-best K% in baseball a season ago. With his high strikeout totals comes an elevated pitch count.
In 2021, Cease made 32 starts but threw just 166 innings which works out to roughly 15.56 outs recorded per start. The man does not go deep. It took him five starts last season to get into the fifth inning and he recorded 18 outs in just 10 of those 32 starts.
This is a bad line considering Caesars has the total at 16.5 and -130 to the Under. Tampa still knows how to work pitchers, the wind will be blowing out (11 mph) and the temperature isn’t optimal for Cease (50 degrees). Under all the way here.
Pick: Dylan Cease Under 17.5 total outs recorded (-110)
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