The MLB season continues to heat up and so does the player prop market that we get to sift through. We’re digging into today’s slate and finding out which plays we think hold the highest value. We’re hitting the Under with the best strikeout pitcher in the league, looking for a rookie to pick up his first MLB win, and hoping for a Boston outfielder to pick up two bags tonight.
Check out our favorite MLB player props for Wednesday, April 20.
MLB props for April 20
Picks made on 4/20/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
Not going on Rodon
Carlos Rodon has enjoyed his new digs in San Francisco as he currently leads all of baseball with an unsustainable 46.7 strikeout rate, much higher than his career mark of 25.25.
His 21 strikeouts over the first two starts are impressive but those numbers came on the backs of games versus the Marlins and Guardians — not exactly deep lineups. Today he’ll turn his craft against the Mets who have been one of the highest-scoring teams in the NL.
Additionally, there are a few things working against Rodon today. First off is the weather where game-time temperatures are expected to be in the low-50s. Getting moisture onto the ball will be a struggle for both pitchers as it was last night.
Another issue for Rodon and his 7.5 strikeout total is the Mets’ lineup. New York is not missing the ball much with the NL’s second-lowest strikeout rate at 19.2%. Logan Webb lasted just 3 2-3 innings yesterday and struck out one versus the Mets while Alex Cobb recorded just 13 outs the day before.
Over their last eight games (five at home), no starting pitcher has recorded more than five strikeouts against the Mets or even gone deeper than 4 1-3 innings. Francisco Lindor is also hot and has seen plenty of Rodon from his time in Cleveland — hitting .412 off the lefty with a pair of home runs.
Rodon could spin his A-game again but the Mets’ lineup with their No. 5 wOBA should give him a little more resistance today than his previous two starts. 7.5 is a big number in 50-degree temperatures against a solid lineup that hasn’t been swinging and missing a lot this season.
Pick: Carlos Rodon Under 7.5 strikeouts (-115)
Goring for the victory
Striking out the Cincinnati Reds has been an early-season pastime for starting pitchers so far in 2022. Only Arizona is striking out more in the NL as the Reds have a 27.6 strikeout rate on the season. They've also won just two of their 12 games with the Padres looking for the series sweep tonight.
Joe Musgrove went 6 1-3 innings last night and struck out seven (got the victory) while Sean Manaea went six innings and punched out six in the series opener while also picking up the win.
Today, young stud MacKenzie Gore will take the mound and the lefty is coming off an MLB debut where he went 16 outs and allowed just three hits while striking out three against a tough Atlanta lineup. The 23-year-old will ride that confidence into a plus matchup tonight with great temperatures at Petco Park which will also aid the southpaw.
The Cincinnati lineup is also without Mike Moustakas, Jonathan India, and Tyler Naquin which is a huge chunk of its production. Yesterday’s lineup was laughable for the Reds who sold a lot of pieces coming into the season. With the injuries and Joey Votto and Tommy Pham both hitting under .150, this Cincy lineup is easy to navigate, especially on home turf at Petco.
Now that Gore has gotten his first MLB start out of the way, the top prospect and his 11.7 K/9 in the minors should translate to the big leagues. Gore showed he could get outs versus the Braves and getting in six innings is possible today after needing just 73 pitches to record 16 outs in his debut.
Facing a weak lineup with the Padres getting to hit Vladimir Gutierrez (0-2 5.40 ERA), the 8-5 Padres are in line to give the youngster his first win.
Pick: MacKenzie Gore to record win (+150 at DraftKings)
El Verdugo
There is something special about being the left-fielder for the Boston Red Sox as, defensively, it’s one of the most unique positions in baseball. However, when the Sox can get a guy who knows how to play the Monster and can rake, there is something special there and Alex Verdugo is starting to put it all together.
The former Dodger who came over in the Mookie Betts deal currenty leads the Red Sox in wOBA, AVG, OBP and SLG. He’s riding a six-game hitting streak and has had multiple bases in six of his 11 games to date. Now he’ll get to face Toronto’s Jose Berrios who has struggled out of the gates and Verdugo has had success against.
Verdugo saw the Toronto starter five times last season and went 4-for-5 with a home run. He’s walking more than he strikes out this season which means he’s seeing the ball well and now gets to face a pitcher who is struggling with command.
Even if Verdugo doesn’t get to Berrios, he will have a great chance to hit this Toronto bullpen that has been overworked and has pitched more innings than its starters have.
Not every team knows how to play the outfield in Boston and Toronto's Raimel Tapia doesn’t have a lot of reps at Fenway. Any mistake in the outfield is extra bases and we’re riding the Verdugo Over 1.5 total bases train tonight.
Pick: Alex Verdugo Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
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