It’s trade deadline day in the MLB, but there is plenty of action on the field today, with a whopping 16 games on tap. This means there will be no shortage of betting value to be found in the player prop market.
Today, we look at a trio of pitching props, including some potential big strikeout days for Corbin Burnes and Cristian Javier.
Check out our favorite MLB player prop bets for Tuesday, August 2.
MLB props for August 2
Picks made on 8/02/2022 at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Darvish dazzles
The San Diego Padres have already made a big move before today’s trade deadline, bringing in closer Josh Hader and completing a blockbuster trade for superstar outfielder Juan Soto. On top of that, they have to play a doubleheader against the Colorado Rockies today.
Yu Darvish gets the ball for the Padres in Game 1, and the veteran right-hander could be in for a strong performance. The right-hander wasn’t as dominant as we’ve become accustomed to in the first half of the season, but he is starting to heat up as the season heads into its final two months.
Darvish has recorded four consecutive quality starts, pitching to a 2.25 ERA while limiting opponents to a .178 batting average and striking out 35 batters. Now, he will toe the rubber against a Rockies team going through another year of crazy home/road splits.
Despite some great numbers at Coors Field, particularly against lefties, the Rockies are a sub-par offense on the road. They rank 23rd in batting average, 28th in OPS, and 29th in scoring when away from the comforts of home.
With the Rockies countering Darvish with rookie Ryan Feltner, who owns a 5.34 expected ERA and a .278 opponent expected batting average, Darvish has solid value to notch his 10th win of the season.
Yu Darvish Prop: To record a win (-120)
Pirates get burned
The Milwaukee Brewers made an exciting move yesterday, moving on from Josh Hader. However, there is no denying the Brew Crew still have one of the most dangerous starting rotations in baseball, and that all starts with Corbin Burnes. The right-hander takes the ball tonight against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates.
Burnes is quietly having another excellent season, pitching to a 2.81 xERA and limiting opponents to a .204 xBA. He’s also in a groove at the moment, pitching to a 1.96 ERA, holding opposing teams to a .163 batting average is punching out 11.7 batters per nine innings.
That means it could be a long night for the poor Buccos. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in batting average and OPS this season while ranking dead last in strikeout rate since the All-Star break. At 29%, it is 2.2 percentage points higher than the next closest team.
Burnes has racked up nine or more strikeouts in five of his last seven starts. While one of the games in which he didn’t exceed that total came against the Pirates when he had just five on July 1, the right-hander also has a start against them this season where he notched 10 Ks.
So, that five-strikeout game feels like the exception, not the rule.
Corbin Burnes prop: Over 7.5 strikeouts (-102)
Javier mows down Boston
It feels like the Houston Astros made all their big trade deadline moves on Monday, bringing in Trey Mancini and Christian Vasquez, so now they can focus on tonight’s matchup with the visiting Boston Red Sox.
Tonight, Astros starter Cristian Javier will look to take advantage of a potentially short-handed Red Sox lineup and continue his breakout season.
Javier owns an excellent 2.81 xERA and limits opponents to a .177 xBA, but Javier's strikeouts are the most impressive part. The right-hander is punching out 12.3 batters per nine innings and has bumped that up to an incredible 14.6 over his last six starts.
Tonight, he faces a Red Sox lineup that is massively struggling. They're already without Vasquez, Rafael Devers, and Trevor Story, plus they could be shipping off a few more players before tonight’s first pitch. Boston also has the second-worst strikeout rate in baseball since coming out of the All-Star break.
The one thing that can get Javier in trouble is if he starts surrendering walks and builds up that pitch count, but Boston is also drawing the third-fewest walks in the second half. With the Red Sox ranking 22nd in batting average and 20th in OPS over that same stretch, Javier should work deep enough into this ball game to eclipse this strikeout total.
The plus money is the cherry on top.
Cristian Javier Prop: Over 7.5 strikeouts (+130)
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