We've got a loaded day of baseball this Saturday with 16 games on the schedule. That means hundreds of MLB player prop bets to sort though so we do all the digging to find you the best betting value on the market.
Today, we're banking on a mediocre pitcher to keep up a recent trend while taking the Over on a low hits number for a superstar slugger and backing the NL MVP favorite. Here are our best free MLB player prop picks for Saturday, August 20.
MLB props for August 20
Picks made on 8/20/2022 at 1 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Arch Deluxe
The Twins host the Rangers today with Chris Archer toeing the rubber. The right-hander isn't exactly having a good season, going 2-6 with a 4.15 ERA, but that actually helps put some on his prop stats at some tantalizing numbers. The Over/Under on his hits allowed today is set at 4.5, a number he's gone below in 10 of his last 11 starts.
Archer does have an impressive opponent batting average of .215, but the other reason he's so likely to go below this number is that he has such a short leash. Archer hasn't pitched past the fifth inning in any of his 20 starts this season.
The Rangers are 17th in the majors with a batting average of .241 and their expected batting average of .235 is even lower. Take the Under 4.5 earned runs for Archer.
Chris Archer Prop: Under 4.5 hits (-120 at DraftKings)
Juan for the money
Juan Soto has gone 0-6 at the plate over the last two games, but he's still one of the most feared hitters in the game for good reason. Once again playing against his former team, the Nationals (the sixth time the Padres have clashed with them since acquiring Soto at the deadline earlier this month), Soto should be poised for a bounce-back performance.
The Over 0.5 hits for Soto is priced at around -150, which seems like an absolute bargain. Before getting shutout in each of his last two games, he had logged at least one hit in 13 of his previous 15 contests.
He's also facing some typically subpar Nats pitching, with Josiah Gray (4.79 ERA) getting the start and their relievers ranking near the bottom of the majors in ERA (4.20) and opponent batting average (.247). Soto also tends to mash against right-handed pitchers like Gray, boasting an OPS of .965.
Juan Soto Prop: Over 0.5 hits (-150 at Unibet)
Not fool's Gold
St. Louis first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is currently the NL MVP odds favorite and is slashing .339/.421/.635 while ranking third in the majors with 266 total bases through 112 games.
Goldy has been even more dominant lately, going 9-14 at the plate with three doubles and a pair of dingers in his last four games.
Today, Goldschmidt and the Cardinals play the second game of a three-game set against the Diamondbacks in the desert. Madison Bumgarner will take to the hill for the D-Backs, pitching to a 4.37 ERA in 24 starts this season.
The four-time All-Star has seen his play fall off a cliff in recent years and ranks in the bottom 12th percentile of pitchers in most analytics, including hard-hit rate (43.9%), average exit velocity (90.4 mph), expected slugging percentage (.466), and expected ERA (5.13).
Goldschmidt crushes the ball against lefties like Bumgarner, boasting an incredible 1.398 OPS against southpaws. He should also have success against a mediocre Arizona bullpen that is graded as the sixth-worst in the majors according to THE BAT. Take the Over 1.5 total bases for the four-time Silver Slugger winner today.
Paul Goldschmidt Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-145 at DraftKings)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $41.92 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
