With more eyes hitting the NFL season, MLB player props might be holding more value at this time of the year than a month ago. With that said, I’m digging into every baseball market and hunting for value. The new Covers player prop page is also a great new tool for finding gems.
Today, we’re backing the arm of a 36-year-old pitcher, fading a No. 5 starter, and betting against plate appearances at plus money. Read more in our MLB player prop picks for Friday, August 26.
MLB props for August 26
Picks made on 8/26/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Old-man strength
Johnny Cueto is absolutely cruising right now in his age 36-year season. All he’s done for the Pale Hose is pitch to a 2.58 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP across 17 starts. He's recorded at least 21 outs in five of his last six starts and nearly threw a complete game in his last outing.
Cueto is a low-strikeout low-walk pitcher, which means he doesn’t burn a lot of pitches and can get deep into games. On the season, the right-hander is averaging just 14.6 pitches per inning.
Cueto could be asked to eat innings again today against the Diamondbacks, as the White Sox used five relievers in an 11-inning loss last night to the Orioles. Closer Liam Hendriks is likely unavailable, and relievers Jimmy Lambert, Reynaldo Lopez, and Jake Diekman have all pitched three games over four days.
With a lot on the line for the White Sox and THE BAT projecting 102 pitches and 19.5 outs (which should be higher due to available relievers), we’re expecting the veteran right-hander to pitch into the seventh inning.
Johnny Cueto Prop: Over 18.5 total outs (-130 at bet365)
Low pitch Mitch
Mitch White will get the ball for the Jays tonight vs. the Halos as Toronto looks to build off a sweep of the Red Sox. White has settled into the No. 5 role in the rotation but doesn’t have a long leash and likely won’t again tonight.
He hasn’t seen more than 21 batters in any of his three starts as a Blue Jay and was lifted after just 73 pitches in his last outing vs. the Yankees. White struck out five batters in that game which was just the fourth time he has topped 4.5 Ks in his 13 starts.
He’ll face an Angels lineup that is much stronger with Mike Trout returning, and one would think interim manager John Schneider would pull White before he sees Trout in the No. 2 spot for the third time.
THE BAT has the former Dodger projected for 80 pitches and 4.1 strikeouts over 14.9 outs. Even with the Jays’ bullpen overused, White’s Over 4.5 strikeout prop at +128 is too long not to take.
White sits in the Bottom 10% of the league in Whiff%, and his fastball that he throws nearly 50% of the time has just a 10% Whiff rate. Missing bats is not his M/O.
Mitch White Prop: Under 4.5 strikeouts (+128 at FanDuel)
Celestino prophecies
Minnesota’s Gilberto Celestino will face lefty Alex Wood and will be hitting in the bottom half of the lineup. The right-handed hitter is a reverse-splits guy who hits lefties at a .215 clip compared to a .285 average vs. righties. However, he still gets lifted for right-handed pitchers.
He’s played a full game just five times over 17 August contests and has gone hitless in 10 of those. He’s started just seven of those games as well.
He didn’t start versus RHP Justin Verlander on Tuesday but pinch hit and went 0-for-2. He then started vs. LHP Framber Valdez and was lifted as soon as he saw a RHP, and hit ninth last night vs. RHP Luis Garcia (three plate appearances).
There are multiple ways this game could go in terms of plate appearances for Celestino, but THE BAT projects him for roughly a 40% pinch-hit risk and just 3.43 plate appearances. With an Under 0.5 hit market that’s paying +140, I’m betting he doesn’t get a full array of at-bats tonight.
Gilberto Celestino Prop: Under 0.5 hits (+140 at bet365)
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