It’s do-or-die time in MLB which means a lot is riding on every pitch from here until October. This article will try to find some of MLB’s best props and side bets for the day and does all the heavy lifting so you don’t have to. If there’s a line on it, we’ll look into it.
Today, we’re looking to cash in on some of that Seattle starting pitching, fading the Jays’ cold bats and doing some value shopping in an underappreciated player prop market.
Check out our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Saturday, August 28.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Tyler Anderson Over 17.5 total outs (-149)
The Mariners are somehow still in the playoff race and a lot has to do with a group of very underappreciated starting pitchers. Lefty Tyler Anderson will look to continue that trend as he faces the Royals.
The 31-year-old veteran owns a 3.00 ERA with Seattle since coming over from the Pirates. He has thrown five-plus innings in four of his five starts in a Mariners uniform and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in four straight outings. The strikeouts haven’t been there, with just 19 through 27 innings with Seattle, but the walks and home runs have been suppressed.
Anderson spun six solid innings against the Royals earlier this year with the Pirates and held the K.C. bats to three hits and one run while striking out five. The Royals have a below-average wRC+ versus LHP.
The most interesting stat versus southpaws is K.C.’s walk and strikeout rate. The Royals walk at the second-lowest rate in baseball versus left-handed pitching and also strike out at the second-lowest rate. No walks and K’s should help Anderson keep his pitch total down which is a great angle to look at when playing his total out market.
Starling Marte Over 0.5 stolen bases (+300)
The home run prop market has become one of the most popular MLB betting markets thanks to the great odds. A market that doesn’t get much attention, but should, is stolen bases. Oakland’s Starling Marte leads the league in swipes with 40 which is a similar number to Shohei Ohtani’s home run lead of 41. However, Ohtani is +200 to hit a home run today while Marte is +300 to swipe a bag.
Looking at a frequency rate, Ohtani is hitting a bomb every 10.63 at-bats while Marte is stealing a bag every 8.65 at-bats. Getting the better price on Marte’s stolen base feels like coupon shopping, if you ask us.
Marte has swiped seven bags over his last nine games and already stole a base against the Yankees on Thursday. The Athletics’ speedster has only been caught three times in 43 attempts and New York gives up 0.45 stolen bags per game which is in the Top 15 in baseball.
If Oakland wants to try to stop the Yankees’ winning streak, it’ll have to find ways to manufacture runs and with Marte hitting .367 over his last seven games, the outfielder should have a couple of shots at taking a bag versus right-hander Nestor Cortes.
Toronto Blue Jays Under 9.5 total hits (+100)
The Blue Jays’ struggles down the stretch are well documented. The offense has had difficulty putting up runs despite getting plenty of traffic on base. Toronto lost another close game last night despite going 1-for-8 with RISP. Over the last week and a half, the Jays have seen the Tigers four times and have gone a disturbing 2-for-39 with runners in scoring position. Those are tough numbers to mimic, but this young Toronto team looks to be running out of gas after many of the stars are grinding through their first full MLB season.
It may be difficult to look at a matchup versus Jose Urena and his 6.19 ERA and fade the Jays, but this team has not shown any ability to string together hits and has lived with the long ball over the last two weeks. Urena will also be making his first start since mid-July and will be piggybacked by Tyler Alexander, who allowed just one run on four hits over seven innings against the Jays just eight days ago.
Toronto has not topped 10 hits in 10 straight games. Bo Bichette is hitting .203 over the last 15 games, Vladimir Guerrero is hitting .263 over the last month, Randal Grichuk is in a 3-for-22 slide and Teoscar Hernandez — who was on fire — is now batting .107 over his seven games. This is a team problem and we don’t see the Jays breaking the slump tonight and love the number we’re getting on the club's hit total with Urena starting but not going deep.
MLB betting card for August 28
- Tyler Anderson Over 17.5 total outs (-149)
- Starling Marte Over 0.5 stolen bases (+300)
- Toronto Blue Jays Under 9.5 total hits (+100)
Picks made on 8/28/2021 at 7:50 a.m. ET
MLB parlays
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