It may seem crazy, but this is the final Monday of August for the 2022 MLB season. Postseason races are heating up as the week opens with eight games on the betting board. That means plenty of value to be found in the player prop market.
The biggest showdown tonight takes place in California where the two favorites to win the American League MVP Award face off when Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Angels host Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees. So, what is the best player prop to back in this epic matchup?
Find out in our best MLB player prop bets for Monday, August 29.
MLB props for August 29
- Mikolas Over 18.5 outs recorded (-102)
- Berrios to record a win (+115)
- Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (+135)
Picks made on 8/29/2022 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Mikolas goes for Miles and Miles
The St. Louis Cardinals continue to keep the Milwaukee Brewers at arm’s length when it comes to the top spot in the National League Central, with the Cards leading the Brew Crew by six games entering play on Monday. They look to extend that lead when they head to the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati to take on the Reds.
The Cardinals hand the ball to right-hander Miles Mikolas for the series opener and we’re betting he puts some work in tonight.
The 34-year-old is having a solid season, pitching to a 3.74 expected ERA. While Mikolas isn’t a big strikeout guy, he’s found success by creating a lot of soft contact. He is able to do that by mixing his four main pitches well, keeping hitters off balance in the process.
Pitching to contact means Mikolas can rack up outs quickly and, as a result, he has become one of the Cardinals' better innings eaters. The right-hander averages 6.31 innings per start and has pitched into the seventh inning or beyond in seven of his last nine starts.
He should be able to work deep into another game tonight against the Reds, who rank 21st in batting average, 26th in OPS when facing right-handers, and have the third-worst strikeout rate in the second half of the season. Bet on Mikolas to go Over his outs recorded prop in this one.
Miles Mikolas prop: Over 18.5 outs recorded (-102)
Jose finds a way
The Toronto Blue Jays need a win. Badly.
The Jays are still holding on to the final wild card in the American League but they are coming off getting swept at home by a Los Angeles Angels team that has the fourth fewest wins in the AL with the pesky Orioles lurking only a couple of games back.
Toronto is hoping to quickly turn things around when they welcome the Chicago Cubs for a rare visit to the Rogers Centre, but just like the Angels, the Jays better not look past the Cubbies. While Chicago enters this game dropping six of their last nine, they are still 20-16 in the season's second half.
Toronto hands the ball to Jose Berrios to stop the bleeding, which is interesting because the right-hander almost perfectly embodies this Blue Jays season — a ton of potential but inexplicably bad at times.
The right-hander has a 5.26 expected ERA this season but 13 of his 25 outings have been quality starts. He has also put together back-to-back strong starts in the tough venues at Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park. Berrios allowed three earned runs on 11 hits while striking out 15 in 12 innings of work between those games.
And despite his inconsistencies, the team is actually a solid 18-7 when Berrios takes the hill this season.
With the Cubs bats going silent over the last nine games (3.11 runs per game) and countering Berrios with rookie Javier Assad, making just his second career start, Berrios is a solid bet to record a win at plus money.
Jose Berrios prop: To record a win (+115 at DraftKings)
Sho-down in Anaheim
It feels like at this point Shohei Ohtani won’t be winning back-to-back American League MVP awards as he trails Aaron Judge by a fair amount in the betting odds. But let’s be frank. Ohtani is the most valuable player in baseball, full stop.
That will be on display front and center tonight in an MVP showdown when Ohtani and the Los Angeles Angels host Judge and the New York Yankees in the opener of a three-game set.
Ohtani is having the best pitching season of his career but he still hasn’t been a slouch with the bat, which is what we're focusing on tonight. The two-way superstar owns a solid .874 OPS and has slugged 28 home runs this season. He’s also been red-hot in August, hitting .303 with a .989 OPS and he could close the month with a bang as he goes against a familiar foe tonight.
The Yankees hand the ball to former Oakland Athletics ace Frankie Montas and the right-hander was probably hoping he wouldn’t have to see Ohtani again after flipping coasts. That’s because Ohtani owns Montas, having gone 9-for-21 (.429) with three dingers against him in his career.
On top of that, Montas’ tenure in pinstripes has not gotten off to a smooth start. The right-hander has been roughed up for a 7.32 ERA and is allowing a .865 OPS to opposing players over his first four starts as a Yankee.
Ohtani is coming off a solid weekend at the plate and now gets a matchup he is very comfortable with. Getting the Over on his total bases at +135 is a tremendous value.
Shohei Ohtani prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135)
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