Today’s MLB Prop Picks: Trio of Pitchers Provide Best Value

Thanks to a doubleheader between the White Sox and Royals, we’ve got an absolutely jam-packed 16-game slate on the MLB schedule for today. That means there is a cornucopia of options in the player prop market.

Today, we highlight a trio of starting pitchers. Charlie Morton looks to take advantage of a struggling Red Sox lineup. Bieber Fever hasn’t reached the same temperatures this season but we found some value against the Tigers. And the Mets just trot out one stud after another to the mound. This time, it’s Carlos Carrasco’s turn.

Check out our best MLB player prop bets for Tuesday, August 9.

MLB props for August 9

• Morton Over 5.5 strikeouts (-122)
• Bieber Over 18.5 outs recorded (-120)
• Carrasco to record a win (-123)

Picks made on 8/9/2022 at 12:25 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best MLB prop bets

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Morton drinks from the fountain of youth

Atlanta Braves starter Charlie Morton has found his groove after a slow start to the season and he’ll look to keep that going when he takes the mound tonight against the spiraling Boston Red Sox.

Since July 1, the veteran righty has a 2.70 ERA while limiting opponents to a .176 batting average across six starts. Morton’s strikeouts have also ticked up, as he has punched out 10.5 batters per nine innings over that span, fanning at least six batters five times.

Tonight, he’ll look at a Red Sox team that is in a tailspin and is not showing any signs of pulling out of it. The BoSox are just 6-11 since the All-Star break, culminating with three losses in four games to the lowly Kansas City Royals.

The once potent Boston lineup has pulled a disappearing act in the second half, ranking 21st in batting average and 22nd in OPS. The Red Sox are also striking out at a much higher rate these days. While they rank 17th in strikeout rate for the season, they have the third-highest K-rate since coming out of the break. 

Morton has averaged 6.23 innings over his last 10 starts, going Over 5.5 strikeouts eight times over that stretch. He should be able to work deep into this one and go above this modest strikeout prop number.

Charlie Morton Prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-115)

Bieber fever heats up

Shane Bieber hasn’t been giving us the same fever we’ve been used to the last few seasons. But the Cleveland Guardians right-hander is still a solid starting pitcher and we’ve found some value as he takes the ball against the Detroit Tigers.

Want an example of “Bieber Fever” not being at the same level in 2022? Just look at Bieber’s last start against the Tigers in July, where he allowed five runs on seven hits in 5 1-3. It was the first time Bieber allowed more than three earned runs in a start against the Tigers since 2018.

That said, that game looks like an outlier in the grand scheme of things. Bieber still has a solid 3.54 expected ERA while striking out 9.1 batters per nine innings. He’s also been durable as they come, averaging more than six innings pitched over 20 starts this season. 

There’s another reason to think that the last start against Detroit was an outlier. The Tigers offense stinks out loud, particularly against right-handers. The Tigers have scored the fewest runs in MLB against right-handers this season (240) while ranking dead last in batting average (.214), and OPS (.587).

That poor offense means an opportunity for Bieber to pitch deep into another ball game. His outs recorded prop is set at 18.5, which means we need 6 1-3 innings from Bieber. That’s a number he has eclipsed twice in his last three starts and in 10 of his last 17 overall. 

Additionally, prior to that last start against the Tigers, he had thrown at least seven innings in seven of his last eight starts against them, including twice in May of this season.

Shane Bieber Prop: Over 18.5 outs recorded (-115)

Carrasco seeing Reds

There is a reason that the New York Mets have joined the upper echelon of betting favorites to win the 2022 World Series, and that’s because it seems like every guy who takes the ball to start a game is an absolute stud right now, including tonight’s starter Carlos Carrasco.

Even when Carrasco was struggling, his FIP has always shown he has pitched better than some of those numbers. And it has all come together since the start of July. The right-hander has allowed just six earned runs over his last six starts. That's good for a 1.50 ERA to go along with a 1.17 WHIP.

Tonight, Carrasco will get the chance to continue those strong numbers as he toes the rubber against the Cincinnati Reds.

Now, the Reds haven’t been all that awful since their 3-22 start to the season, but right-handers still give them a fair number of problems. Cincinnati ranks 23rd in batting average and 27th in both OPS and wRC+ while owning the sixth-highest strikeout rate when facing righty hurlers.

The Reds counter Carrasco with veteran Mike Minor and the lefty looks like he is running out the clock until the end of the season. Minor’s FIP of 6.57 is actually worse than his already ugly 6.19 ERA. Basically, what you see is what you get with the lefty. 

That’s enough to back Carrasco to notch his 13th win of the season and his fifth since the start of July.

Carlos Carrasco Prop: To record a win (-123 at Caesars)

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