One of the best things about MLB betting is the sheer amount of MLB prop bets available to choose from. We dig into all the odds every day and try to unearth the juiciest lines.
Today we're backing a pair of strong starters in an AL Central matchup, expecting the Houston Astros sluggers to get back to what they do best, and trying to find the best betting value with Jacob deGrom.
Let's begin our July with a profitable day on the diamond with our free MLB prop picks and predictions for Thursday, July 1, 2021.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Twins vs White Sox First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-120)
The Chicago White Sox smashed the Minnesota Twins by a final score of 13-3 last night but we're expecting a lower-scoring contest this time around. Both of these teams have strong lineups, with the White Sox ranking seventh in the majors in scoring (4.91 runs per game) and the Twins 11th (4.65). But as the old mantra says: "Good pitching will always beat good hitting."
While we would never say "always" when it comes to MLB betting, the starting pitchers for both teams have certainly been good.
Minnesota will give the ball to Jose Berrios, who was named an All-Star in 2018 and 2019. The right-hander had a disappointing campaign last year but has bounced back with a strong year in 2021, going 7-2 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Berrios has a 2.77 ERA in his last six starts and is fresh off an outing against Cleveland where he allowed one run through 6 1-3 innings of work.
Carlos Rodon will toe the rubber for the White Sox and the southpaw has enjoyed a breakthrough season, entering the Cy Young conversation with a 2.06 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent batting average of .169 through 13 starts.
Rodon is coming off an outing where he allowed three runs in five innings but that snapped a streak of three straight starts in which he allowed exactly one run, with two of those games coming against the best hitting teams in the majors in the Astros and Blue Jays. Take the Under on the first five innings, which has been set at a relatively high 4.5.
Houston Team Total Above 4.5 (-130)
The Astros are in a bit of a slump, riding a four-game losing streak into today's contest against Cleveland. That said, the 'Stros are still an offensive powerhouse, leading the majors in both scoring (5.60 runs per game) and OPS (.797).
Houston's lineup is absolutely loaded from top to bottom with four batters having a slugging percentage above .500, while Michael Brantley (.492) and Kyle Tucker (.482) are just below that lofty threshold.
Despite being held to three or fewer runs in five of their last six games (against two of the worst clubs in the majors in the Orioles and Tigers), the Astros have still been raking over the last month. They averaged a whopping 6.07 runs per game with an OPS of .867 in June.
Today, the Stros will face off against Cleveland rookie J.C. Mejia. The inexperienced right-hander has looked OK when coming out of the bullpen but has struggled as a starter, pitching to a 6.27 ERA with a .282 opponent batting average in five starts. Expect the Astros' big bats to come alive tonight and take the Over on their team total.
First 4.5 Innings NY Mets -0.5 (-120)
It's deGrom Day and while we at Covers often blind bet the Under on the first five innings total whenever the Mets ace takes to the mound, we are a bit leery of that 2.5 number tonight.
Keep in mind that the Braves are sending Ian Anderson to the hill and he has allowed at least three runs within the first five innings in four of his last six starts. So there's a pretty decent chance that we could see the Over 2.5 cashing on the first five innings prop even if deGrom is pitching a shutout.
That said, there are still other ways to get betting value out of the dominant Mets right-hander. The two-time NL Cy Young winner is on pace for a record-shattering year and easily leads the majors in ERA (0.69), ERA+ (554), WHIP (0.53), FIP (0.99), strikeouts per 9 innings (14.1), and strikeouts to walks (11.09).
Despite getting clobbered 20-2 by Atlanta last night, the Mets are still 6-4 in the head-to-head against the Braves this season and have a 4.5-game lead on them atop the NL East standings. With how dominant deGrom has been, and how shaky the 23-year-old Anderson has looked lately, we're backing the visiting Mets to have a lead by the midway point of today's game.
MLB betting card for July 1
- Twins vs White Sox First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-120)
- Houston Team Total Above 4.5 (-130)
- First 4.5 Innings NY Mets -0.5 (-120)
Picks made on 7/1/2021 at 10 a.m. ET
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