Today’s MLB Prop Bets, Picks and Predictions: Ohtani Gets Home Run Derby Started Early

We picked up over 2.0 units yesterday on our MLB prop picks and are looking to end the first half on a high note.

Today, we like a lefty to mow down a team that leads the league in strikeouts, are fading the Astros offense as they coast to the All-Star break, and are hitting a three-leg home run prop to cap off the first half.

Check out our favorite free MLB prop bets and predictions for Sunday, July 11, 2021.

Today’s MLB props and picks

Robbie Ray Over 7.5 strikeouts (-113)

No team in the league has struck out more than the Tampa Bay Rays, with their 919 Ks pacing the league. As a team, they strike out at a 26.7 percent rate and now face lefty Robbie Ray who comes into the series finale with 59 punchouts over his last seven outings. Of those seven starts, the Toronto lefty has recorded nine or more Ks four times. The Rays are a Bottom-10 team against LHP, putting up a .710 OPS versus southpaws.

Ray pitched against the Rays in his last start but managed just six punchouts over seven innings. He is getting deep into games which is a dealbreaker for strikeout props. He also faced Tampa back in late May and cruised through seven innings, allowing a single run and striking out seven batters. 

His K prop has sneaked up to 8.5 but has averaged around 6.5-7.5 throughout the season and can be found at 7.5 for Sunday.

Houston Astros team total Under 4.5 (-122)

The Astros have been blanked in back-to-back games by a motivated Yankees team that is playing in Houston for the first time since the 2019 ALCS. They had just three hits against Gerrit Cole yesterday and another three in the opener. The Astros have scored just one run over their last 28 innings and look much softer than usual without Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman in the lineup. 

New York starter James Taillon is coming off an impressive seven-inning performance where he allowed just one run on four hits. It hasn’t been a great first half for the Yankees starter but, because of that, we’re getting a good number on the Astros’ team total.

Houston made Frankie Montas look like a Cy Young winner on Thursday and then managed just two hits off of Nestor Cortes on Friday. Last night, Dusty Baker’s team had no answer for Cole, who threw an absurd 129 pitches. The bottom of the lineup is weaker than usual with Abraham Toro, Myles Straw, Martin Maldonado, and Robel Garcia manning the six-through-nine spots.

Joey Gallo, Shohei Ohtani and Marcus Semien Over 0.5 home runs (+2690)

Joey Gallo continues to hit moon shots and has 11 of them over his last 12 games. He's getting ready for Monday’s Home Run Derby and can be found for +300 to go deep.

We’re obviously adding Shohei Ohtani to this parlay especially after a game where he didn’t go deep. Ohtani leads the majors in long balls with 33 and is the most impressive athlete in baseball today. Ohtani can be had for +210.

Marcus Semien has hit the ball hard in his series versus the Rays. He launched one home run yesterday and could hit No. 23 Sunday versus lefty Rich Hill. Semien has a .863 OPS and seven home runs against southpaws. Hill has seen his velocity and spin rate trend in the wrong direction and owns a 5.18 ERA over the last month. Semien can be had for +350.

Add it all up, and this trifecta pays out +2690.

MLB betting card for July 11

• Robbie Ray Over 7.5 strikeouts (-113) 
• Houston Astros team total Under 4.5 (-122)
• Joey Gallo, Shohei Ohtani and Marcus Semien Over 0.5 home runs (+2690)

Picks made on 7/11/2021 at 10:12 a.m. ET

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