The MLB summer months are here, and the player prop market is still hot and beatable. We’re digging into today’s slate and finding our three favorite MLB player props.
We’re fading a pitcher in Coors, hoping for a short start from a pitcher coming off a month-long hiatus, and riding the mustache power in the Bronx.
MLB props for July 15
- Quintana Under 14.5 total outs (+120)
- Eovaldi Under 4.5 strikeouts (+128)
- Carpenter Over 0.5 total bases (-135)
Picks made on 7/15/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Jose, we go
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Jose Quintana will make the trip to Coors Field and fading visiting pitchers, especially on their first day in the Colorado elevation, is never a bad thing. The park is No. 1 in runs created, third in extra-base hits, and 27th in strikeouts, as the thin air also affects the pitching.
Today’s weather conditions are making it an even more difficult place to pitch, and the home run factor is 12% which is double its neutral 6%. Coors is the toughest place for a pitcher today by far.
Enter Jose Quintana, who is coming off a 13-out performance versus the Brewers, where the lefty induced just six missed swings. That makes just 12 missed swings over his last two starts spanning 176 total pitches. Quintana could see even fewer whiffs today, meaning a Colorado team that leads the league in batting average vs. left-handed pitching (.288) has a huge advantage.
THE BAT projects Quintana for 4.17 innings pitches and just 73 total pitches. Quintana is paying +120 for the Under 14.5 (15.27 implied) but projects for 12.51 total outs. This is one of the best-valued pitching market bets from THE BAT today.
Jose Quintana Prop: Under 14.5 total outs (+120 at bet365)
Eovaldi hurts
The Boston Red Sox head to the Bronx to open up a three-game set with the division-leading New York Yankees. Nathan Eovaldi will be tasked with shutting down one of the best home offenses in the Bombers.
Eovaldi will also be making his first start since early June as a back injury has kept the righty out of action. The starter has made one rehab start and went just three innings, so he isn’t exactly stretched out.
Nate Eovaldi final line in rehab start with @WooSox vs SWB:
— Dan Roche (@RochieWBZ) July 10, 2022
Eovaldi 3(+1 batter) 5H 2R 2ER 0BB 4K 54 pitches/40 strikes
**He came out for the 4th inning, threw one pitch, a double to Phillip Evans and then departed. His fastball averaged 95-97 mph. #RedSox @wbz pic.twitter.com/mrxg0hI29t
Eovaldi’s strikeout total is currently 4.5 but paying +120 to the Under (5.32 implied). The combination of pitch count and opponent has the Under hitting at over 50% per THE BAT, which predicts 4.32 total strikeouts and just 69 total pitches.
The right-hander has hit the Over on this prop in 10 of his 12 starts, but tonight’s conditions are very different. If bettors are just looking at hit trends, they’re missing the biggest edge in this market.
His total outs market has not been opened by the books at the time or writing but would also show value in the Under at 14.5 outs.
Nathan Eovaldi Prop: Under 4.5 strikeouts (+128 at bet365)
Trades of the Carpenter
The resurgence of Matt Carpenter has been more than impressive, as the veteran worked on his swing extensively after the Cardinals became disinterested in him. It’s been known that he called Joey Votto and discussed his new swing with the Reds’ first basemen for hours.
Carpenter also worked with some of the best hitting coaches in the offseason and has remade himself as a hitter. He's regularly contributing to the Yankees’ lineup versus right-handed pitching.
Matt Carpenter is the 1st Yankees player ever to hit 7 HR in his first 10 hits with the franchise. pic.twitter.com/rlEhCBw2aw
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 2, 2022
The mature mustached masher is slashing .338/.451/.868 over 28 games and 68 at-bats. He does have a slight pinch-hit risk, and the Red Sox have two decent southpaws in the pen in Jake Diekman and Austin Davis.
However, his total base market is set at just 0.5, so a single is all we need in a player that is projected to see 3.47 plate appearances — most of them versus a right-hander making his first start in over a month.
In the last eight games that Carpenter's started, he’s collected at least one hit but is hitting for a ton of power, making his other hitting markets also tempting. For now, the Over 0.5 bases will do.
Matt Carpenter Prop: Over 0.5 total bases (-135 at DraftKings)
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