The beauty of MLB player prop betting is that you can back star players on bad teams because it's all about individual stats, baby. That isn't the case today, as we found the best MLB betting value on the board rests with a player on each of the three best teams in the league.
We're backing the two best sluggers in the majors in Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez, while also putting our money on a breakout player on the Dodgers.
Here are our three favorite MLB player prop picks for Saturday, July 30.
MLB props for July 30
Picks made on 7/30/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Judge Dredd
Aaron Judge just keeps doing MVP things after going 3-5 at the plate last night with a pair of dingers and 6 RBI. Judge now leads the majors with 89 RBI and should be in line for another big performance today against the Royals.
Kansas City will send Jonathan Heasley to the mound for his first start since being placed on the 15-day IL with shoulder tendinitis. The right-hander has struggled with a 5.50 ERA in 11 starts this season and his average exit velocity, hard hit rate, and xwOBA all rank among the bottom 7th percentile.
It won't get any better for the Royals after Heasley with their bullpen ranking last in the majors in WHIP (1.51) and OBA (.261).
Judge is second in the majors in average exit velocity and hard hit rate and he boasts an OPS of 1.081 against righties like Heasley. With the superstar slugger driving in at least one run in seven of his last eight games, I'm taking the Over 0.5 on his RBI total.
Aaron Judge Prop: Over 0.5 RBI (-109)
Air Yordan
As incredible as Judge has been this season, he doesn't lead the majors in slugging percentage. That honor belongs to Astros' outfielder Yordan Alvarez, and the 2019 AL Rookie of the Year went 3-3 with a home run last night and has a staggering .827 slugging percentage since the start of June.
Today, Alvarez and the Stros host the Seattle Mariners, who will have right-hander Chris Flexen toeing the rubber. Flexen has a solid 3.75 ERA, but his expected ERA sits at just 4.78. His average exit velocity, hard hit, and barrel rates all rank in the bottom 25th percentile.
Alvarez leads the majors in average exit velocity and hard hit rate, while his barrels per plate appearance ranks second behind Judge. He has also been crushing the ball against righties with an OPS of 1.210. Grab the Over 1.5 total bases for Alvarez today.
Yordan Alvarez Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-110)
Punny/Witty Header
The Dodgers will look to improve upon their MLB-best 67-32 record today as they face off against the Colorado Rockies. Dodgers' second baseman Gavin Lux is starting to live up to the potential that made him the second-best prospect in the majors just two years ago.
Lux is batting .340 since the start of June, and while he doesn't have much power, he does an excellent job of slapping singles. In the last 48 games, Lux has racked up 35 singles, and he projects to have more success today at Coors Field.
The Rockies will give the ball to Kyle Freeland, who has a 5.66 ERA with a .306 OBA at home this season.
Lux has hit very well in eight games at Coors Field this year, going 11-26 at the plate with nine singles. He has also gone 5-9 at the dish against Freeland, with all five of those hits being singles.
Gavin Lux Prop: Over 0.5 singles (-130)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $54.76 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
