Today’s MLB Prop Picks: Greene Brings the Heat vs Arizona

It’s a light day of action on the diamond with just six games on the MLB schedule but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of baseball betting value to be found in the player prop market.

Tonight, we home in on Reds’ fireballer Hunter Greene, Blue Jays’ catcher Alejandro Kirk quietly becoming one of the best hitters in baseball, and Noah Syndergaard taking the ball for the Angels. And you know what that means, stolen base props!

Check out our MLB player prop picks for Monday, June 6, as we bank on some of baseball’s best to do their thing.

MLB props for June 6

• Greene Over 6.5 strikeouts (-104)
• Kirk Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
• Duran Over 0.5 stolen bases (+700)

Picks made on 6/6/2022 at 12:53 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best MLB prop bets

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Greene means go

You may not realize this, but since their horrid 3-22 start to the season, the Cincinnati Reds are a better than .500 baseball team. And they have some fun young players leading that charge, including starter Hunter Greene, who takes the ball for the Reds when they open a series against the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks.

Greene throws straight gas. The 22-year-old right-hander averages nearly 99 miles per hour with his fastball. And while opponents can time up the heat and take Greene’s fastball deep more than he would like, he’s got real swing-and-miss stuff thanks to that vicious velocity combined with a nasty slider.

Greene has also been better than his 6.19 ERA, posting an expected ERA of 4.68 while striking out 12 batters per nine innings, and his stuff should play against the D-Backs

Arizona struggles to make contact when facing right-handed pitchers, hitting .217 against them, which is the third-worst mark in baseball. Additionally, their 9.22 strikeouts per game are next-to-last.

While Greene can have some control issues and rack up his pitch count quickly, he has struck out at least six batters in nine of his 10 starts this season and is coming off a game where he punched out eight Red Sox batters in just 3 2-3 innings. Bank on Greene to make us some green with his strikeout prop tonight.

Pick: Hunter Greene Over 6.5 strikeouts (+100)

He's the Captain Kirk, now

If you don’t follow the Toronto Blue Jays closely (like I do), you may not even be aware of Alejandro Kirk’s existence, let alone realize that he is quietly becoming one of the best hitters in baseball. He’ll look to stay hot when he and the Jays open a series against the Kansas City Royals.

There aren’t many players in the game today who can recognize a strike out of a pitcher’s hand better than Kirk. The Blue Jays catcher is striking out in just 8.6% of his plate appearances which ranks in the Top 2.0% of all MLB hitters. 

Kirk’s ability to recognize strikes means he doesn’t chase, creating a ton of contact, and right now he’s on fire. Kirk is hitting .444 with a 1.401 OPS with eight extra-base hits over his last 10 games. And in the nine games he's started in that span, he's gone Over 1.5 total bases seven times.

Tonight, he goes against Royals starter Daniel Lynch. The lefty has an expected ERA of 4.47 and is giving up a .277 expected batting average to opponents. But the real reason to like this bet, besides the fact Kirk is also hitting .344 versus southpaws this season, is that Lynch doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, punching out 39 in his 43 innings of work.

Long story short, Lynch will be pitching to contact against one of the hottest contact hitters in baseball and we’re getting better than even money. Beam me up with this Captain Kirk bet. 

Pick: Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 total bases (+110)

Thor will Come Undone

Welcome to your weekly PSA about Noah Syndergaard giving up stolen bases. No one has allowed more stolen bases this season than the Los Angeles Angels right-hander. So, the question is which Boston Red Sox player do we back to swipe a bag in tonight’s matchup?

Thor has surrendered 13 stolen bases this season, which is three more than the next closest pitcher. This has been a problem for Syndergaard dating back to his time with the Mets and is due to a slow and deliberate delivery to the plate. 

Now, the Red Sox aren’t exactly known for their speed on the base paths. That said, they have just called up speedy outfielder Jarren Duran. The left-handed hitter hasn’t attempted a big-league stolen base yet, but he swiped 11 bags in 37 games at Triple-A Worcester.

Duran has also done a solid job of getting on base in his brief MLB stint with a .357 on-base percentage over his first three big-league games. And it doesn’t hurt that Syndergaard is giving up a .281 expected batting average to opponents.

There won’t be a better chance for Durran to steal his major-league base than tonight against Syndergaard.

Pick: Jarren Duran Over 0.5 stolen bases (+700)

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