[Editor's note: This article was written prior to Marlins starter Pablo Lopez getting scratched from today's start against the Red Sox.]
It's a weirdly light schedule in the MLB today with just three games on tap, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t still plenty of value to be found in the baseball prop betting markets.
We start by looking at a strikeout prop for Pablo Lopez as he and the Miami Marlins try to cool down the Boston Red Sox, and the San Diego Padres are out for some revenge against the Chicago Cubs, but will Adbert Alzolay continue to be a thorn in their side?
We break down and pick those games and more with our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Monday, June 7.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Pablo Lopez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
We’re here for a good time, not a long time. Yeah, the Miami Marlins and Boston Red Sox will play one game at Fenway Park Monday as a makeup for a rained-out game on May 30th.
The Red Sox come into this game white-hot, winners of four straight ball games, including a three-game sweep of hated rivals, the New York Yankees, over the weekend. The task will be on Marlins’ starter Pablo Lopez to try and quiet down those loud BoSox bats.
Lopez is coming off a career-high nine strikeouts last time out against the Toronto Blue Jays and he did that in just four innings of work against a team that strikes out the fourth-least in the MLB. It was also the seventh time in his 12 starts this season where he racked up more than five strikeouts.
Overall, the Red Sox are a middle-of-the-pack strikeout team, getting punched out 8.85 times per game, but are coming off a weekend where they didn’t strike out a ton. To be fair though, those games came against Domingo German, Jameson Taillon, and Michael King.
Lopez should create more swings and misses than those guys are capable of, and getting plus money on a number he has gone Over in nearly 60 percent of his starts is something we can’t pass up.
Angels Team Total Over 4.5 (-110)
The Kansas City Royals and the Los Angeles Angels open a three-game set in Anaheim tonight, where Royals’ right-hander Jackson Kowar will make his Big League debut.
Kowar is the Royals' fourth-rated prospect and has been dealing for AAA Omaha this season. Kowar pitched to a 0.85 ERA, an 0.88 WHIP, and has struck out 41 batters in 31 2-3 innings, but he will be given a tough first task going against Shohei Ohtani and a talented Angels lineup.
The Halos have been a disappointment this season, and even though they have been missing Mike Trout for a while, you can’t blame the bats. Los Angeles ranks 11th in scoring and OPS and seventh in batting average. The Angels plate 4.7 runs per game and have averaged 6.0 over their last five games.
Going against Kowar and a so-so K.C. bullpen means we like the Halos to soar over their team total in this one.
Cubs-Padres Under 4 Five-Inning Total (-115)
The San Diego Padres don’t have to wait long to exact some revenge on the Chicago Cubs. The Cubbies swept the Padres last week, but these National League foes begin another three-game set, this time at Petco Park in San Diego.
The Padres will be in tough however, as they face the Cubs’ young right-hander Adbert Alzolay. The 26-year-old is in a groove right now, pitching to a 1.53 ERA, is limiting opponents to a 0.96 WHIP, and has struck out 19 batters in 17 2-3 innings over his last three starts. That includes five innings of one-run, three-hit ball against the Padres last Wednesday.
Padres starter Ryan Weathers didn’t fare as well in his last outing against the Cubs, giving up four runs on seven hits over five innings. That was the lefty's worst appearance of the season. In 11 games prior to that (six starts), he owned a 1.31 ERA with a .168 opponent batting average.
Weathers is used with an opener sometimes and usually doesn’t go more than four innings. He did last time and got tagged in the fifth for a big two-run homer. Expect manager Jayce Tingler to have a shorter leash with Weathers in this one and hand the ball over to arguably the MLB’s best bullpen a little sooner.
With that in mind, we like this one to be a low-scoring affair through the first half of the game.
MLB betting card for June 7
- Pablo Lopez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
- Angels Team Total Over 4.5 (-110)
- CHC-SD Under 4 Five-Inning Total (-115)
Picks made on 6/7/2021 at 10:25 a.m. ET
MLB parlays
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