It’s a classic getaway day in the MLB and the action on the diamond should be non-stop with 15 games total, including eight matinee affairs. That means player props all day long.
Today, we look at a trio of total bases props for a trio of left-handed hitters who are in a groove heading into tonight’s matchups. Bryce Harper, Rafael Devers, and Cedric Mullins all look to have great value today.
Check out our MLB player prop picks for Wednesday, May 11, as we bank on some of baseball's best to do their thing.
MLB props for May 11
- Harper Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
- Devers Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
- Mullins Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Picks made on 5/11/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Reigning NL MVP is on fire
Calling Bryce Harper a streaky hitter doesn’t seem like an outlandish statement. When the former MVP is in the zone, there arguably isn’t a more dangerous hitter in baseball. Harper is currently in one of those hot streaks and will look to stay hot when he and the Phillies close out a series with the Mariners.
Harper is an impressive 9-21 (.429) over his last five games with a 1.312 OPS, which includes him whacking three doubles and two dingers. Wednesday afternoon, he’ll take on Mariners' young starter Logan Gilbert.
The 25-year-old right-hander has also been impressive to start the season, pitching to a 1.36 ERA, racking up 33 strikeouts in 33 innings pitched. But Gilbert has been a bit lucky to this point as he’s been giving up more than his fair share of hard contact.
As a result, Gilbert has a much more average 3.48 expected ERA and is allowing opponents to hit for a .260 expected batting average. He has also lost his control a bit over his last three starts, issuing 10 walks over 16 1-3 innings.
Look for Harper to take advantage of this matchup against this young starter and continue his tear at the plate, going Over 1.5 total bases in the process.
Pick: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at DraftKings)
Fever pitch
Yesterday, we called Garrett Whitlock one of the lone bright spots for the Red Sox at this point in the season. While we came up just short with his strikeout prop, there is another BoSox player worth backing as they continue their series with the Braves.
Nobody has been more reliable for the Red Sox at the dish this season than Rafael Devers. The third baseman is hitting .315 with a .854 OPS this season and he has been even better lately. Devers has at least one knock in 14 of his last 15 games and has gone Over 1.5 total bases eight times over his last 12 contests. He is hitting .380 with a 1.006 OPS over that 12-game stretch.
Tonight, he’ll be going up against Braves right-hander Ian Anderson. Anderson has been solid for the Braves so far this season, pitching to an xERA of 3.41 and limiting opponents to an xBA of .226.
However, he is not striking out a lot of batters (just 18 in 24 2-3 innings pitched), and his fastball is getting hit hard with batters getting to it for a .266 xBA. And it is a pitch he throws nearly 50% of the time.
Devers is hitting .300 versus right-handers this season, while 12 of his 14 extra-base hits have come off righties. Bet on Devers to take the Over on his total bases tonight.
Pick: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at Caesars)
Lone Baltimore bright spot
Suffice to say, Cedric Mullins has found his All-Star form. The Baltimore Orioles outfielder is one of the hottest hitters in baseball and he’ll look to keep swinging a hot stick when he and the O’s continue their series in St. Louis against the Cardinals.
Mullins started the 2022 campaign ice cold, hitting just .195 over his first 20 games. You wouldn’t be able to tell that now, as the outfielder now has hits in nine of his last 10 games, good for a .378 batting average and a 1.080 OPS. That includes eight extra-base hits, coming off an impressive four-hit performance last night.
Tonight, he will face Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas. The veteran right-hander is off to a great start this season, pitching to an xERA of 2.73 and limiting opponents to an xBA of .235. Mikolas, however, is coming off a start in which he allowed seven hits in 5 2-3 inning to a lefty-heavy San Francisco Giants’ lineup.
Combine the fact that Mullins was a .299 hitter when facing right-handed pitching last season, and he looks like a solid bet to go Over his total bases once again tonight, a number he has eclipsed seven times over this 10-game stretch.
Pick: Cedric Mullins Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at FanDuel)
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