Today’s MLB Prop Picks: Mile-High Mashing

We've got a beautiful Saturday across the country with 16 games on the MLB betting board and sunny skies expected for most of them. That gives us plenty of MLB player prop bets to consider as we dig into all the odds and find you the best value out there.

Today we're backing Boston's Bogey man, putting our money on a promising pitching prospect, and counting on C.J. Cron to continue crushing the ball at Coors. Here are our best free MLB player prop picks for Saturday, May 14.

MLB props for May 14

• Bogaerts Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
• Kirby Over 4.5 strikeouts (-110)
• Cron Over 1.5 total bases (-140)

Picks made on 5/14/2022 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best MLB prop bets

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Professor X

Xander Bogaerts continues to be one of the few bright spots in Boston's dim season, as he picked up a pair of hits and drove in two runs in the Red Sox's 7-1 win against the Rangers last night. He's gone 7-17 at the dish in the last four games and on the season, the three-time All-Star is slashing .347/.397/.463 with 56 total bases in 31 games. 

Bogaerts and the BoSox will be facing off against the Rangers and 26-year-old starter Glenn Otto today. Otto struggled as a rookie last year (9.26 ERA in six starts) and on the surface, he seems to have made big strides with a 3.14 ERA in three starts this year.

However, the analytics suggest that he's due for some major regression, with Otto pitching to a hard hit percentage of 47.4% and an expected slugging percentage of .610. We're taking the Over on Bogaert's total bases prop at plus money.

Pick: Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at Caesars)

Kirby's Dream Land

You never want to get too excited about a pitching prospect after just one game, but George Kirby's big-league debut against Tampa Bay on Sunday was sensational. Kirby threw six innings of shutout ball versus the Rays, allowing just four hits and fanning seven batters without issuing a single walk.

Kirby came into the season ranked as Seattle's best pitching prospect, and as the No. 30 prospect by MLB pipeline. After dominating at Double-A Arkansas with a 1.82 ERA and 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings, he was called up to the bigs last Saturday. 

George Kirby 100mph. pic.twitter.com/LL4FPBwpJP

— Mariners Minors (@MiLBMariners) September 11, 2021

Kirby has great command and an overpowering fastball that averaged 95.8 mph on Sunday and is capable of clocking at 100 mph. We're banking on him not being a one-hit (one-strike?) wonder and taking the Over 4.5 on his strikeouts total today.

Pick: George Kirby Over 4.5 strikeouts (-115 at FanDuel)

Pass the Cronic

Nothing in life is cerain except death, taxes, and the Colorado Rockies being able to mash at home and nowhere else. The Rockies are plating an MLB-high 6.0 runs per game at hitter-friendly Coors Field while averaging just 2.73 runs per game on the road. Thankfully for Rockies fans, they're at home today and hosting the Kansas City Royals. 

The Royals will give the ball to struggling right-hander Carlos Hernandez, who has a 7.15 ERA with a 1.90 WHIP and an OBA of .337 in five starts this season. The Royals bullpen isn't much better, with their relievers ranking near the bottom of the majors in WHIP (1.39) and OBA (.244). 

Rockies first baseman C.J. Cron has been a machine this season, slashing .309/.353/.610 with nine home runs and eight doubles in 32 games. It's no surprise that Cron's numbers have been even better at home, where he is slashing .394/.438/.788 with an incredible 52 total bases in 17 games.

It's juiced to -140 but we love the Over 1.5 total bases for Cron against this weak-pitching Royals team in the thin air of Denver.

Pick: C..J. Cron Over 1.5 total bases (-140 at Caesars)

Pages related to this topic