Today’s MLB Prop Picks: Urias Fends Off Rockies in Playoff Tune-Up

It’s hard to believe, but the penultimate day of the MLB regular season is here. And with all the seeding scenarios still in play and varying motivations for teams, the board can be a difficult thing to navigate for bettors. Luckily, that's what we're here for.

Today, we look at a hitter with a nice matchup against a team that has its sights set on the postseason. One starter can take advantage of a newly eliminated and disheartened team. While another is getting in a final tune-up before the playoffs.

Check out my best player props for Tuesday, October 4.

MLB props for October 4

• Mullins Over 1.5 total bases (+140)
• Gallen Under 4.5 hits allowed (-125)
• Urias Under 1.5 earned runs (-110)

Picks made on 10/04/2022 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best MLB prop bets

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Mullins one over

With a win and a Seattle Mariners loss last night, the Toronto Blue Jays clinched the top wild card in the American League. Not only does that mean the Blue Jays will get to play the first playoff round at home, but it also means they’ll be able to give their key players a little extra rest and set up their rotation the way they like heading into Friday’s Game 1.

That said, there is still a game to be played in Baltimore tonight (and tomorrow), and suddenly the Orioles present us with some great betting value. There are many ways to attack this game while backing the O’s but my favorite player props option is Cedric Mullins to go Over his total bases of 1.5 at nice plus money.

The Orioles leadoff man has followed up his All-Star campaign from a year ago with another solid season. Mullins is hitting .260 with a .726 OPS with 16 home runs and 34 stolen bases. But those numbers bump up to .282 and .789 when facing right-handed pitchers and he goes against a pretty mediocre one tonight in Mitch White.

White hasn't found his footing since coming over to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline. And while there have been some flashes of potential, the right-hander has pitched to a 7.38 ERA and surrendered a .834 OPS to opponents over nine games (eight starts) as a member of the Jays.

And Mullins should get a good number of opportunities against White. Not only is he the O’s leadoff hitter, but you can also expect Toronto to leave White in this game as long as possible, whether it is going well or not, to give as much rest as possible to the Blue Jays bullpen heading into the postseason.

Cedric Mullins Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+140)

Zac picks up the slac(k)

With their win last night, the Philadelphia Phillies officially punched their ticket to the postseason and eliminated the Milwaukee Brewers in the process.

It’s a disappointing end to the season for the Brew Crew, and it's hard to imagine they’ll have much pep in their step when they play their second-to-last game of the season against the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona, on the other hand, has been out of the postseason picture for a while and that hasn’t stopped starter Zac Gallen from putting on a tremendous showing in the second half of the season.

Gallen has a ridiculous 1.27 ERA, with a 1.74 FIP to back it up, while limiting opponents to a .150 batting average over 13 starts since the All-Star break. Now, he’ll face a Brewers lineup not only lacking motivation but one that flamed out down the stretch.

Milwaukee ranks 25th in batting average and 18th in wRC+ while owning the seventh-highest strikeout rate since the start of September.

Don’t be shocked if Gallen shuts down a Brewers team that couldn’t care less about this game. Take the Under on his hits allowed prop of 4.5. A number Gallen has stayed below 11 times in his 13 second-half starts.

Zac Gallen Prop: Under 4.5 hits allowed (-125)

Dodging earned runs

Julio Urias will make his final tune-up start of the regular season prior to the National League Division Series when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Colorado Rockies.

Urias could be looking at a Game 1 start in that series considering the season he’s had. The southpaw owns an impressive 2.12 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .199 batting average with a .592 OPS. Oh, and he just isn’t giving up runs since the All-Star break.

Urias has allowed one earned run or fewer 10 times during his 12 second-half starts. And the two where he gave up more, it was just two.

Now, it’s true the Rockies have plated two or more earned runs three times in their four meetings against Urias this season, but all three of those games were in Colorado. And the home-road splits for the Rockies are no joke.

Once again, the Rockies were an above-average offensive team at home, but get them away from Coors Field, and yuck. Colorado ranks 25th in batting average and is dead last in OPS and wRC+ when playing on the road this season.

And in the one game where the Rockies faced Urias in Chavez Ravine, he held them to one run on five hits while striking out seven over six innings.

The other thing to consider here is that since this is likely the last time Urias will pitch before the postseason, maybe the Dodgers don’t push him as hard and limit him to five innings or so.

Either way, he’s good the good to keep the Rockies off the scoreboard tonight.

Julio Urias Prop: Under 1.5 earned runs (-110)

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