It's the final day of the 2022 Major League Baseball regular season, and you know what that means. With playoff races locked up and virtually nothing on the line beyond some individual stat-padding, a lot of teams are going to be trotting out Triple-A lineups and resting their regulars.
This makes navigating the props market a little challenging, but there is definite value to be had.
We're picking our three favorite props for today's slate, with all games starting by 4:20 p.m. ET. Keep an eye on lineups and potential changes as we get closer to first pitch.
MLB props for October 5
Picks made on 10/5/2022 at 10:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
High and Lowe
Raise your hand if you realized Texas Rangers first baseman Nathaniel Lowe was slashing .301/.356/.492 with 26 home runs and 26 doubles in 156 games. The lefty slugger has been especially hot in the second half, batting .337 with 15 of those bombs across 71 games.
He's also offered excellent lineup protection for the likes of Marcus Semien and Corey Seager.
The Yankees are deploying right-hander Domingo German. The right-hander has been solid in limited action, posting a 3.31 ERA in 68 innings across 14 outings (13 starts). There is some reason for concern, however, as his 18.7% strikeout rate is trending lower than at any other point in his career and a career-low .251 BABIP against suggests he's been getting some good fortune.
While German is generating elite spin on his fastball, it's not translating to whiffs and he's not getting good velocity. Conversely, opponents are hammering him when they make contact, owning a 40.7% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 89 mph, both of which rank in the bottom third for pitchers.
And if the Yankees turn to the bullpen early, it's hard to see them burning one of their high-leverage arms in an otherwise meaningless matchup. The AL East is wrapped up and they'll need all hands on deck against whichever team (Tampa or Cleveland) comes to town for the ALDS.
At +143 to grab at least two total bases today, Lowe has an excellent matchup to clear his number.
Nathaniel Lowe Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+143)
Bogey's last curtain call?
Xander Bogaerts could be playing his final game in a Boston Red Sox uniform this afternoon at Fenway Park. The All-Star shortstop has an opt-out in his contract and in what looks like an incredible free-agent class at the position, it's likely that he tests the open market.
With that in mind, it seems unlikely that he'd be denied a sort of curtain call in front of the home crowd.
He's batting .305 on the season and .375 against lefties and the Tampa Bay Rays will be turning to southpaw Josh Fleming as the game's opener. Even more than the Yankees, the Rays will be disinclined to burn any of their top bullpen arms as they open their three-game set in Cleveland against the Guardians on Friday.
Bogaerts is as steady as they come and was in the running to win the AL batting title up until the last couple of weeks. He makes up for his relative lack of power (15 home runs) by making consistent contact.
Xander Bogaerts Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Phillies don't Falter with Bailey
Normally, trusting Bailey Falter to fare well against a lineup as potent as the Houston Astros would be a tough sell. Houston doesn't strike out often and absolutely obliterates mistakes.
The Phillies narrowly reached the postseason for the first time since 2011 and will be deploying a 1-2 punch of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler in their wild-card series in St. Louis against the Cardinals. Even if that series goes to a third game, Falter won't be starting it with Philly already announcing Ranger Suarez would get the ball in that scenario.
If Falter is even included on the roster, he'll certainly be used as a relief arm.
For today, he's a warm body being cast out to eat up innings and to spare a banged-up bullpen. There is very little margin for error for this Phillies team, so Falter will probably go as long as he can, which bodes well for him clearing a modest strikeout total of 4.5.
With the top AL seed wrapped up for Houston and a lefty on the mound, it wouldn't be shocking if the Astros sat both Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez for a day of rest.
Instead, we might get a healthy dose of Mauricio Dubon, David Hensley, and Jake Meyers in the lineup today. And while they're all right-handed bats, they're still less imposing than either Tucker or Alvarez.
With Falter potentially getting a longer leash against a lesser Astros lineup, I'll take the Over on this relatively low strikeout total, a number he's cleared in back-to-back starts and in eight of his last 12.
Bailey Falter Prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (+132)
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