It’s do-or-die time in the MLB, which means a lot is riding on every pitch from here until October. This article will try to find some of MLB’s best props and side bets for the day and does all the heavy lifting so you don’t have to. If there’s a line on it, we’ll look into it.
We went 5-1 SU +3.78u last week and are looking to keep cashing into the weekend. We’re hitting a team total Under on a cold offense, looking to keep cashing stolen base props and finding some value in a strikeout prop that is at a three-game low.
Check out our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Saturday, September 25.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Cleveland team total Under 3.5 (-125 at PointsBet)
Cleveland has dropped four of its last six and went real cold at the dish last night, getting blanked 1-0 and going 1 for 7 with RISP. The struggles at the plate for the future Guardians have been prevalent this week as the 75-78 team has scored just 2.5 runs per game over its last six matches. At home, the offense has been even worse with a bigger sample size. In Cleveland’s last 13 games at Progressive Field, it has failed to score more than five runs and is averaging a sad 1.92 runs per game thanks to getting shut out four times over that stretch.
Lance Lynn will take the ball for the White Sox Saturday night. Lynn comes into his second-last start of the year having allowed just one earned run over his last two starts. Over his last 13 starts dating back to June 26, Lynn has surrendered more than one earned run just three times. Lynn’s splits favor the road and although Lynn owns a 4.50 ERA over 16 innings against Cleveland, he has been slightly unlucky with a 1.18 WHIP and a .345 BABIP, but has 19 strikeouts over those 16 innings.
The Chicago bullpen threw 3 2-3 innings of scoreless ball last night and has a 2.99 ERA this month and a league-best 1.9 WAR. The soon-to-be Guardians may have packed it in. This team total is 3.5 across the board and is priced from -125 to -132.
Adalberto Mondesi Over 0.5 stolen bases (+425 at BetMGM)
One player who has padded our pockets down the stretch has been Kansas City’s Adalberto Mondesi. His blend of speed and power is so unique that it’s easy to drop three to four units and litter his player prop markets.
Mondesi is 9 for 33 over the last two weeks and has swiped six bags. He’s also 3 for 8 against Detroit starter Tarik Skubal over his career, with two home runs. On the bases, he is 13 for 14 in stolen base attempts on the year and has one stolen base per 9.48 at-bats over his career. We’ve been vocal about the value in stolen bases compared to home runs and Mondesi’s anytime stolen base prop can be found at +425 at BetMGM.
BetMGM is also hanging some of the board’s best prices on Mondesi props, including +600 to hit a home run and +160 to score at least one run. We like all three of those plays but are sticking with what’s been working and dropping a full unit on the Over 0.5 stolen bases at +425. This prop can be found elsewhere at just +105.
Jon Gray Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120 at BetMGM)
Jon Gray has struck out at least five batters in seven of his last eight starts and comes into his Saturday turn with 22 strikeouts over his last 16 1-3 innings at home. That includes a Sept 8 game versus the Giants where Gray didn’t have his best stuff — three runs on six hits over five innings — but he did manage eight total punchouts over 23 batters faced.
Gray’s strikeout splits are pretty even at home vs. the road, but he does own a 3.79 ERA at Coors Field compared to a 4.59 ERA on the road. The second half has seen a decent increase in K/9 for the Colorado starter, too, as he posted an 8.4 K/9 in the first half but has been missing more bats since the All-Star game with a 10.8 K/9 in the second half.
Getting Gray’s strikeout total at 4.5 is a big deal. If the right-hander isn’t dealing, he's proven he can top this number in just five innings of action. Since his start against the Giants three weeks ago, Gray’s K prop total hasn’t been as low 4.5 as it was 5.5 versus the Nationals on 9/19 (finished with five Ks) and 5.0 versus the Braves on 9/14 (finished with seven Ks over five innings). It’s a little juicy at -120 but this number could hit 5 later Saturday.
MLB betting card for September 25
- Cleveland team total Under 3.5 (-125 at PointsBet)
- Adalberto Mondesi Over 0.5 stolen bases (+425 at BetMGM)
- Jon Gray Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 9/25/2021 at 7:25 a.m. ET
MLB parlays
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Where can I bet on MLB props?
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