Tyler Glasnow makes his much-awaited return to the mound after his recovery from Tommy John surgery kept him out of action for over a year. The strikeout artist is one of our favorite plays today to go Over his total of 3.5 even though he's not expected to pitch deep against Cleveland.
We're also eyeing Bryse Wilson on his own modest K total and Julio Urias to stay in the win column.
Here are our three favorite MLB player prop picks for Wednesday, September 28.
MLB props for September 28
Picks made on 9/28/2022 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Bryse Bryse Baby
Pittsburgh Pirates starter Bryse Wilson isn't exactly a household name, but there's value on his strikeouts prop this evening against the Cincinnati Reds.
His total is set at a modest 3.5 with the Over sitting at +108 at FanDuel and around +105 at other books should that value disappear. Wilson has completed at least five innings in each of his last four outings and has tallied at least four strikeouts in the last three.
THE BAT projects Wilson to record 4.3 strikeouts today against a Reds team that is particularly prone to the punchout. Their 23.9% strikeout rate ranks tied for fifth in MLB on the season and the lineup is missing some of its heaviest hitters due to injury.
The Pirates aren't giving Wilson a long leash in his starts, throwing fewer than 90 pitches in each of his last 12 outings. He was pulled after 89 pitches over five innings against the Cubs in his last appearance. For this reason, I don't love the Over on his outs recorded prop at 15.5. I also don't love the Under because all he'd have to do to torpedo that bet is get a single out in the sixth, which is certainly possible against this Reds lineup.
Instead, Wilson is in a better position to clear a very low strikeout total, which he's done all three times he's faced Cincinnati already this season.
Bryse Wilson Prop: Over 3.5 strikeouts (+108)
In case of emergency, break Glasnow
The Tampa Bay Rays are getting proper reinforcements just ahead of the postseason as erstwhile ace Tyler Glasnow makes his season debut Wednesday against the Cleveland Guardians.
As he returns from Tommy John surgery, his strikeouts recorded prop is listed at a low 3.5 with plus money to the Over. This is the case for a couple of reasons. First, Glasnow will be on a pitch count. Manager Kevin Cash said that he'll throw around 45 pitches in his initial outing before giving way to the bullpen.
Second, he's facing a Cleveland Guardians team that doesn't strike out often and relies on making a ton of contact.
But, this number is too low to ignore. Glasnow struck out 14 batters across seven innings for Triple-A Durham during his rehab leading up to his activation.
While they were minor-league bats, it's an encouraging sign for the flame-throwing hurler, who struck out 123 hitters in 88 innings in 2021 before being sidelined. That was good for 12.58 strikeouts per nine innings and a 36.2% strikeout rate.
Despite the risk involved in backing a pitcher coming off a lengthy injury, there's too much value on the table to cast it aside.
Tyler Glasnow Prop: Over 3.5 strikeout (+115)
Urias FTW
The Los Angeles Dodgers are listed at -140 on the moneyline against the San Diego Padres tonight at Petco Park. Lefty Julio Urias is toeing the rubber and he's been as reliable as any starter in baseball over the last couple of months.
The Dodgers have won 16 of his last 17 starts and he's earned the win himself in 14 of them. The knock on Urias was he rarely went deep into his starts, but that's no longer the case. Since July 16, a span of 12 outings, Urias has completed at least six innings 10 times and he's finished five in the other two.
He's walked more than three batters just twice in that span, so he's not racking up his pitch count with poor control and issuing free passes. As a result, he's in a position to come away with a decision every single time, and more often than not ... it's a win.
It doesn't hurt that he plays for the Dodgers, who absolutely crush right-handed pitching with a 123 wRC+ and .789 OPS vs. RHP (both lead MLB). And as good as Padres righty Joe Musgrove is, he hasn't had his best stuff against the Dodgers, allowing seven earned runs in 12 1-3 innings vs. them this season.
The Padres rank middle-of-the-road vs. lefties in general with a 104 wRC+ on the season. Since August 1, the Padres are striking out in 25.7% of their plate appearances vs. lefties and are hitting just .223 in these matchups. With the advantage clearly in Urias' corner, I like him to pick up yet another win.
Julio Urias Prop: To record a win (+135 at DraftKings)
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