Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Pitching Matchups Favor the Hitters

Prop bet #1: Rusted over

BetMGM is slightly off-market here, and I'm jumping on it. 

After flirting with Cy Young contention to begin the month, Steele has faded. He's allowed over this number in nine of his last ten starts. That means the implied probability of this hitting based on recent form is a staggering 90%. While the edge certainly isn't that strong, it does suggest it's worth looking closer at. I priced this a full hit higher against the best offense in baseball. 

Steele faced the Atlanta Braves last month when he was playing his best baseball of the year and hit a roadblock. He allowed eight hits and three earned runs, which was a rough start for Steele. I see little reason why Atlanta doesn't have similar success here. Steele is a heavy fastball-throwing pitcher. I refuse to believe that will yield any success against this Braves team. They are on a historical pace to be one of the greatest fastball-hitting teams ever. They enter today with eight (!!) players in the lineup, hitting an above-average clip against the league. In addition to that, they have four players in the lineup with a double-digit run value against the fastball. 

Justin Steele prop: Over 5.5 hits allowed (-120 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #2: Dodgers chase Anderson

This fits some narratives that I am looking for in this market. It's a pitcher that is due for some negative regression. He's put together back-to-back solid starts, but he's still allowed over three earned runs in half of his last ten starts – that signals some negative expected regression. In addition to that, the last time he faced the Los Angeles Dodgers, he allowed six earned. 

The only thing that doesn't hold up here is that the Dodgers have very little left to play for this season and are only looking to avoid rust heading into the postseason. However, I'm fine looking past that because this matchup is too good to ignore. Simply put, Chase Anderson can't create enough swings and misses. That's a problem when facing the LA Dodgers. Sometimes it's that simple.

Anderson enters today with a whiff rate, an expected batting average, and an expected ERA, all in the bottom 30% of the league. Just like was the case for the Braves matchup, the Dodgers will see a pitcher who throws a heavy dose of fastball pitches. LA is the second-best team in baseball in slugging and RBIs against the fastball.

Chase Anderson prop: Over 3.5 earned runs (+108 at Caesars)

Prop bet #3: Well-equipped

I'm finishing things by swallowing the juice on the player with baseball's second-longest active hit streak. I projected this number at -172, so there's a nice edge here, even with the juice. 

Kyle Bradish hits the mound for the Baltimore Orioles today, although he's had a fine season. He doesn't offer much swing-and-miss stuff with a whiff rate below the league average and expected average that aligns closely. Ildemaro Vargas has not faced Bradish before, but he does enters today with the third-best batting average against the breaking pitch. That fits over half of Bradish's pitching arsenal, and the way Vargas is playing to end the year, it's hard to envision him not taking advantage of that.

Ildemaro Vargas prop: Over 0.5 hits (-160 at BetMGM)