Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Strider Continues Cy Pursuit

Prop bet #1: Fearless with Fastball Freddy

Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta has been outstanding over the last month, and this is essentially a play on that more than anything else.

Peralta eclipsed this number twice in his two starts this season against the Pittsburgh Pirates and has exceeded this number four times in his last 10 — posting double-digit strikeout totals in three of them. The Pirates' strikeout numbers against right-handed pitchers this season aren't bad. They ranked just about average, and overall, they rank near the bottom of the league in swing percentage. However, that doesn't apply right now.

Pittsburgh has started to integrate new faces in its lineup, and that includes an offense with five hitters boasting a strikeout rate of 25% or higher on the season. In addition, one of their lower strikeout guys, Bryan Reynolds, has struggled against Peralta historically, with seven strikeouts in 27 plate appearances (38%). I'll back Peralta to keep rolling, even at a high number, against a lineup with little to play for.

Freddy Peralta prop: Over 7.5 strikeouts (+108)

Prop bet #2: Smooth sailing for Strider

Spencer Strider needs to post numbers to win the NL Cy Young. It's that simple, and this is an attack on that market.

The insane strikeout totals have even gotten Strider into the conversation for this award. As of publication, he was the fringe third choice in most betting markets in a still wide-open race. Since the start of August, he's been quite bananas, eclipsing today's number in seven of his last 10 starts, with four of these being double-digit numbers. This has nothing to do with the St. Louis Cardinals and everything to do with Strider, largely because he seems to strike out everyone, no matter the metrics, when he's "on," but also because I projected a number of 9.3 here.

These situational aspects are far too difficult to ignore. Last week, he grabbed some headlines when he became the league's first 15-game winner of the season. That was quickly overshadowed by a Justin Steele masterpiece a few days later, and the betting markets followed suit. Strider will be highly motivated here. Right or wrong, headlines matter for an award voted on by writers. If Strider can come out and post a significant strikeout number, he can make another move for this award. We're betting on him to do precisely that.

This number is already at 9.5 at several books, but 8.5 can still be found at the time of this writing.

Spencer Strider prop: Over 8.5 strikeouts (-135 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: In J-Rod we trust

It's juicy, but when you have it projected at -172, it's not as bad of a take, and that's precisely the situation I find myself in here.

Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez has been hot. He's gone Over 1.5 total bases in eight of his last 10 starts, with most of those seeing him grab three or more. Rodriguez has never faced Lyon Richardson, the hurler who takes the mound for the Cincinnati Reds tonight, but there's little reason to think he'll have an issue against him. Richardson struggles in almost every definable metric, but what sticks out is his expected ERA over 8.00 against the actual one around 6.00. This tells us that his already poor numbers should get even worse, especially against a hitter like J-Rod.

One of the most significant issues for Richardson this season has been the hard-hit ball, mainly when he throws the fastball (a pitch he uses 49% of the time). Batters have a .786 slugging percentage against it and a hard-hit rate of around 44%. That's music to Julio's ear. Not only does he enter this game with the best hard-hit rate on the Mariners roster, but he's also slugging against the fastball. As of today, he'll come into this one with the highest run value among Mariners against the fastball and a Top-3 hard-hit rate. 

Julio Rodriguez prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-155 at PointsBet)