Puerto Rico vs Dominican Republic World Baseball Classic Predictions, Picks, Odds: Puerto Rico Enchants as Underdogs

Talk about fireworks. We get to watch arguably the greatest Caribbean baseball rivalry where the stakes couldn’t be any higher when Puerto Rico takes on the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic in Miami on Wednesday night.

Both Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic enter this matchup with identical 2-1 records, meaning it is a de facto elimination game for who will join Venezuela in the quarterfinals, claiming the second spot out of Pool D.

There has been little separating these two rivals through the WBC to this point, so is a tight game on tap despite the fact the DR is a healthy favorite? I break down the World Baseball Classic odds and bring you my best bet for this epic, win-or-go-home Pool D matchup.

Puerto Rico vs Dominican Republic odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of March 15, 2023.

Puerto Rico vs Dominican Republic picks and predictions

A quick glance at the lineups, and you get why the Dominican Republic is a large favorite in this matchup. They can trot out Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Julio Rodriguez, Rafael Devers, Eloy Jiminez, and it goes on from there. While outside of Francisco Lindor and Javy Baez, the Puerto Rico lineup is filled out with everyday big leaguers like Eddie Rosario, Kike Hernandez, and Christian Vazquez.

But despite the DR having a big edge when it comes to their respective lineups, there is little separating these two Caribbean rivals' results in this World Baseball Classic.

Both enter this matchup at 2-1, each suffering a loss to undefeated Venezuela in games that weren’t all that close. They both have 10-0 mercy rule victories over Israel, with Puerto Rico’s being a pseudo-perfect game (only 24 outs were recorded).

And then there are the stats. The Dominican Republic is hitting .311 with a .873 OPS through three games, while Puerto Rico has a .299 average and a .832 OPS. When it comes to pitching the DR has a 2.25 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a .179 opponent batting average as a team. Puerto Rico comes in with a 3.12 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a. 172 opponent batting average.

That’s tight, so it could come down to the starting pitching matchup. The Dominican Republic hands the ball to veteran Johnny Cueto, who is set to pitch for the Miami Marlins this season. Puerto Rico is expected to counter with New York Mets prospect Dominic Hamel.

Cueto is now 37 years old and is coming off a bounce-back season with the Chicago White Sox where he pitched to a 3.35 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.

Hamel is a 24-year-old right-hander who had a breakout year in the Mets’ system in 2022. He has a mid-90s fastball and a devastating slider. He used that to rack up 145 strikeouts in 119 innings last year, pitching to a 3.25 ERA in the process. So, it is the savvy veteran vs. the young gun.

I would generally lean toward the veteran with the stacked lineup in a matchup like this. But the runline at +2.5 for Puerto Rico intrigues me.

This is a storied baseball rivalry. The intensity in Miami will be cranked up to 11 for this matchup. Hamel may be inexperienced, but if he can locate his fastball, his slider could be a terrific weapon against an aggressive Dominican lineup. 

Puerto Rico also has the advantage of getting an extra day’s rest after not playing yesterday. Their bullpen featuring the likes of Edwin Diaz and Jorge Lopez should be all rested and ready to go. 

Despite the Dominican Republic’s apparent edges, the numbers tell a story of a much closer matchup, and I can’t shake the feeling that this win-or-go-home game is going to come down to the wire. I’m backing Puerto Rico on the runline tonight.

My best bet: Puerto Rico runline +2.5 (+100 at bet365)

Puerto Rico vs Dominican Republic moneyline analysis

The Dominican Republic opened this World Baseball Classic as big as -500 favorites in this Pool D showdown. And that makes sense for the reasons I mentioned above. The lineup is stacked, they have a veteran starter, and they boast a solid bullpen.

But that isn’t giving the Puerto Ricans enough respect, and early bettors have agreed. The DR has dropped down to as low as -330 at some spots. 

The Dominican Republic's lineup must be respected, but Puerto Rico still has a Major League-caliber one. And it’s not like Puerto Rico is going up against Sandy Alcantara or Cristian Javier. Johnny Cueto is coming off a solid year, but he certainly isn’t the guy he was a few years ago. His advanced numbers weren’t great either, as he ranked in the 16th percentile in expected batting average, and the eighth percentile in strikeout rate.

This is just too much juice to lay with a favorite in a rivalry game, whose stats have been very similar in this tournament. I’d take my chances with the underdogs or stay away.

Puerto Rico vs Dominican Republic Over/Under analysis

The total for this de facto elimination game is on the board between 10 and 10.5. But the fact that so much is on the line here has me thinking the Under may be the way to lean in this one.

This is a situation where the teams will do whatever it takes to win. While a manager may let a starting pitcher work things out in an earlier tournament game, that may not be the case this time around. 

The intensity of this matchup also tends to favor the Under as well. If you can get 10.5, these teams would be 5-1 to the Under in this tournament at that number.

Puerto Rico vs Dominican Republic game info

Puerto Rico vs Dominican Republic starting pitchers

Dominic Hamel: Hamel is a 24-year-old right-hander in the Mets' farm system. Baseball nerds will love him for his crazy spin rates. He won the award for the system's best pitcher in 2022.

Johnny Cueto: Cueto is a 37-year-old right-hander. The MLB veteran of 15 big league seasons is known for changing up his delivery to mess with the timing of opposing hitters.

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