Rangers vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds: Texas Takes It to Garcia

The Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros open up a three-game set tonight at Minute Maid Park, where Luis Garcia and the home side sit as -155 favorites vs. Martin Perez and the 7-5 visitors. 

Even without Corey Seager, this Texas lineup has a decent matchup vs. Garcia, who is struggling with a velocity drop on his fastball and is getting hit hard and often to begin the season. There’s value in the Over market today vs. the Houston starter.

Find out where my best bets lie our MLB picks and predictions for Rangers vs. Astros on Friday, April 14.

Rangers vs Astros odds

Rangers vs Astros predictions

Astros starter Luis Garcia has some red flags entering his third start of the season. With his fastball velocity down 1.6 mph from a season ago and sitting in the low-90s, opponents have been ripping the ball vs. the right-hander.

Over his two starts vs. the White Sox (.263 AVG) and Twins (.244 AVG), Garcia is allowing a .455 batting average vs. his fastball, which he throws roughly 40% of the time. His second-most used pitch, his cutter, has a .302 xAVG. He’s not missing bats and is getting hit very hard.

The Rangers are without Corey Seager, but any big-league lineup can take advantage of a pitcher dealing with velocity and hard-hit issues.

The Houston pitcher has generally had a low H/9 over his short career, which is why we’re getting some value in his pitching markets — most notably his Over 4.5 hits allowed. 

bet365 has this Over at -115, while some other books are as short as -135. I’d play the Over 4.5 hits to -130, as THE BAT is also projecting over five hits allowed and a full pitch count at 95 pitches. Garcia’s primary stuff is getting hit hard, and his secondary pitch is compromised because of his inability to pitch off the fastball. 

I love his Over 1.5 total runs at -160 too, but his Over 4.5 hits at -115 is my best bet here.

My best bet: Garcia Over 4.5 hits allowed (-115)

Rangers vs Astros moneyline analysis

The Rangers head into Houston, where they are 16-38 SU in the last 54 meetings. They’ll also be without shortstop Corey Seager, who is on the IL with a hamstring injury. It will be tough to replace his production, as he currently leads the team in AVG (.359), OBP (.469), and SLG (.538).

The Rangers lost 10-1 to a light-hitting Kansas City team in the first game without Seager. His replacement, Josh Smith, might not be hitting in the two-hole with his .158 average. We could see Marcus Semien play at shortstop, but either way, this lineup is slightly weaker heading into a series vs. a very strong Houston offense.

The Astros currently sit 10th in wRC+ but are slugging just .392, ranking 22nd. They’re healthy and being led by guys like Kyle Tucker and, now, Mauricio Dubon. In Wednesday’s 7-0 win over the Pirates, the Astros sported a lineup that featured five guys batting .275 or better, and if Alex Bregman (.196 AVG) and Jeremy Pena (.214 AVG) start to heat up, this could be the deepest lineup in baseball. That could make things rough for Texas starter Martin Perez tonight.

The lefty has been giving up more than a hit per inning and has been getting lucky with a high left-on-base percentage and an unsustainable K%. Houston has hit lefties at a Top-10 rate in most metrics this year and should be able to push past its team total of 4.5.

The worry about laying the tax on the home side, which hasn’t seen much movement on the moneyline since opening, is with Garcia. The Houston starter is getting hit hard thanks to a pretty decent drop in velocity on his fastball from last year. Batters are hitting a robust .455 off his primary pitch, and if he hasn’t corrected the issue following his last start, this shorthanded Texas lineup could plate some early runs before seeing one of the best bullpens in baseball that come in rested with yesterday off. 

There is some value on the Rangers in the first five moneyline at +135 thanks to the red flags of Garcia, but with both starting pitchers lacking my trust, early team totals might be the better play.  

Rangers vs Astros Over/Under analysis

The full-game total opened at 8.5 and has seen a 20-point move to the Over. 

The starting pitching matchup is likely driving some of this steam to the Over, as well as a Houston lineup that's deep and could be doing even better. However, thanks to the Houston bullpen (I still have confidence in Ryan Pressly) and a very good Texas bullpen (fifth-best ERA to start the season at 2.84), I like the probability of early runs more than later ones. 

Garcia currently sits in the Bottom 7% in fastball velocity, as well as his expected batting average. Batters’ average exit velocity off his fastball is an absurd 100 mph through two starts. Even the Seager-less Texas lineup could do some damage vs. Garcia who, like Perez, also has an xERA nearly two runs higher than his actual ERA.

Perez’s strikeouts are up, but the groundball pitcher has also seen a significant drop in his groundball rate and an increase in his HR/FB ratio. If Perez can’t get the ball on the ground, this will not be a fun Houston lineup to navigate as it has pop and speed at nearly every position.

Again, thanks to a pair of solid bullpens, I’m much happier taking the first five Over 4.5 at up to -125 and expecting at least one of the two starters to get hit hard. 

Rangers vs Astros game info

Rangers vs Astros betting preview

Starting pitchers

Martin Perez (1-1, 2.53 ERA): Perez has failed to record 18 outs in any of his two starts this season and his 2.53 ERA is a little deceiving considering the lefty has allowed 13 hits and three walks over 10.2 innings of work. His 10.13 K/9 on the season is more than 2.5 strikeouts/9 above his THE BAT projections, while his xERA sits at 4.53. THE BAT is projecting 90 pitches, 16 outs, 4.44 strikeouts, and 2.94 earned runs. 

Luis Garcia (0-1, 7.00 ERA): Garcia is winless over his first two starts and has allowed seven runs on 13 hits over nine innings of work with an 8/5 K/BB ratio. His fastball velocity is down nearly two mph from last season, which has resulted in his fastball getting hit hard — an average exit velocity of 100.1 mph! Batters are also hitting .455 off that same fastball. THE BAT projects 95 pitches, 17.7 outs, 2.72 earned runs, and 6.44 strikeouts. 

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