The finish line is in sight with the Wild Card races narrowing, and my MLB player props have you covered for today’s 15-game slate.
Colorado Rockies starter Austin Gomber kickstarts a trio of pitcher props this afternoon, and the recommendations wrap up with Milwaukee Brewers righty Freddy Peralta.
MLB props for September 18
- Austin Gomber Under 16.5 outs recorded (-115 at DraftKings)
- Spencer Schwellenbach Under 17.5 outs recorded (+121 at Pinnacle)
- Freddy Peralta Under 17.5 outs recorded (-103 at Caesars)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Austin Gomber Under 16.5 outs recorded
The Arizona Diamondbacks continue to rake with the highest wOBA in baseball this month and since the All-Star break. They also rank second in the metric against lefties for the season.
It’s a bad spot for Colorado Rockies southpaw Austin Gomber, especially since he’s set for a splash of statistical correction. While he’s cleared this total in six straight starts, his 4.69 xFIP is well above his 3.00 ERA during the stretch, and he’s also served up a 41.8% hard-hit rate.
Plus, this is a home game for the Rockies at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Not ideal for the soft-tossing southpaw.
Prop bet #2: Spencer Schwellenbach Under 17.5 outs recorded
My MLB picks are moving against the market with this one, but Atlanta Braves rookie Spencer Schwellenbach has recorded 17 or fewer outs in four of his past six starts, and he’s already skyrocketed past his prior career-high innings count. There hasn’t been a glaring decline in his numbers across the six-start stretch, but his xFIP is up from 3.21 to 3.55 and a number of additional underlying numbers are moving in the wrong direction.
Schwellenbach has seen his BABIP, average exit velocity, launch angle, barrel percentage, and hard-hit rate all climb across his past six starts, per FanGraphs. The Cincinnati Reds are no joke at home either, as Cincy sports a solid .314 wOBA, .173 ISO, and 9% walk rate at Great American Ball Park.
Prop bet #3: Freddy Peralta Under 17.5 outs recorded
Milwaukee Brewers righty Freddy Peralta has gone Under this total in four of his past five starts despite a tidy 2.42 ERA. His 5.31 xFIP suggests he’s been incredibly lucky, and his 92% strand rate reinforces it. His pitch values are also down across the board during the stretch, per FanGraphs.
Of course, Peralta also draws a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday. Philly ranks third in wOBA (.347) during its active 17-6 run, and the Phillies have been solid against right-handed arms all year with a .318 mark.
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Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups:
