The Texas Rangers came into this weekend’s series in San Francisco on a heater and clinched a series victory with a commanding 9-3 win on Saturday. Can they get their 11th win in 12 games behind right-hander Dane Dunning?
Let’s break down Rangers vs. Giants in our MLB picks and predictions for Sunday, August 13.
Rangers vs Giants odds
Rangers vs Giants predictions
On Sunday, we’ve got ourselves a battle between two masters at pitching to contact between Dane Dunning and Logan Webb. Yes, both men have sightly inflated expected ERAs due to the number of batted balls they allow into play, but there’s a lot to like with both arms.
Dunning is pitching in front of one of baseball's Top-5 defenses, according to outs above average, and he’s traded some ground balls for fly balls as he's been pumping the strike zone even more than usual this season. His walk rate has come down to 6.9% and his strikeout rate is now at a career-low 17.3%. It has amounted to a 3.21 ERA, and while the expected stats would point towards regression, his accompanying defense is the reason he’s had such great results.
The Giants have been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball over the last two weeks with a 65 wRC+. On top of that, the only real success they’ve had has come from a 9.2% walk rate and some timely base hits. With a putrid .099 ISO in that span, I’m not too worried about Dunning getting lit up here.
That’s enough for me to back the Under here before we even consider San Francisco's ace. Texas has been red hot lately, but leaning on power is not going to work all that well against a guy in Webb, who’s allowed ground balls roughly two-thirds of the time a ball has come back in play.
And he's allowed more than three runs in just three of his last 20 starts dating back to April 22 and one of those came at Coors Field, where pitchers go to die. Webb has been particularly effective at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, limiting opponents to a .226 batting average while posting a 2.23 ERA (4.52 on the road).
My best bet: Under 8 (-106 at FanDuel)
Rangers vs Giants same-game parlay
Under 8 (-106)
Corey Seager To Get A Hit (-390)
Michael Conforto To Get A Hit (-180)
We’ve already covered the fact that I think both pitchers should have varying levels of success here. The contact profile that both men possess should really keep runs at a premium, and I’d expect very few extra-base hits.
With that, though, it’s pretty hard to craft a same-game parlay with pitching-focused legs since neither guy is really going to rack up strikeouts. That would lead me to believe the best approach is going with some offensive props.
While Dunning and Webb limit damage, they do tend to allow a number of base hits because of the sheer amount of contact hitters make against them.
For that reason and others, I like Rangers shortstop Corey Seager to get a hit. He’s batting .423 against ground ball pitchers this season, something that’s pretty remarkable, and against finesse pitchers like Webb he’s hitting .385 according to Baseball-Reference.
I also like Michael Conforto here as a guy who has a solid matchup with a right-handed pitcher as a lefty and a fly-ball-focused one at that. If anyone’s going to homer here, it’s Conforto, so the chances of a hit are high.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Rangers vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I think you definitely have to take a good, hard look at the Rangers moneyline. Texas has been excellent at the plate over the last two weeks with a .265/.370/.480 slash line and its only real issue has been strikeouts, coming at a 24.8% rate in that two-week span.
This is clearly the better of the two offenses, and it’s become even more evident following Seager's return earlier this month. They have much more talent than the home team, and while Webb has the stronger track record between the starters — and the better peripherals — I’m simply not sure that will matter much here.
With that being said, the Rangers have commanded 71% of the bets here but the Giants account for 75% of the handle wagered on the moneyline. A reverse split like that has successfully scared me off the Rangers, and that’s why the Under is probably the wiser play in this spot.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Get one 25% profit boost to use on any bet this weekend at Caesars! Opt-in Now
B) Place a wager on any Sunday MLB game at Unibet and get a 25% profit boost for Sunday Night Baseball! Bet Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Trend to know
The Giants have hit the game total Under in 60 of their last 103 games (+16.80 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Giants
Rangers vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, August 13, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Texas, NBC Sports Bay Area |
Starting pitchers
Dane Dunning (9-4, 3.21 ERA): Regression hit Dunning hard in July, watching as he posted a 5.06 ERA in five starts. He’s calmed down a bit in August with a 2.63 ERA through two outings, and he’s now turned in three straight games where he’s managed to keep his opponent to three earned runs or fewer.
Logan Webb (9-9, 3.38 ERA): Webb has looked a lot more like himself in the last month and a half. He’s allowed just six earned runs over his last three starts (20 innings) and he’s managed 15 strikeouts during that time against just one home run.
