The surging Tampa Bay Rays will look to complete a four-game sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays when the teams meet for the series finale in Dunedin, Florida on Monday afternoon.
Tampa Bay takes a 10-game winning streak into the contest — a run that has propelled the club into a first-place tie in the stacked AL East.
Can Toronto avoid the brooms in its last game at TD Ballpark before calling Buffalo home? Find out with our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Rays vs. Blue Jays on May 24.
Rays vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: TD Ballpark, Dunedin, FL
• Date: Monday, May 24, 2021
• Time: 1:07 p.m. ET
• TV: SN, BS-Sun
Rays vs Blue Jays odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonRed-hot Tampa Bay opened as a -125 favorite early this morning at DraftKings, and the moneyline slid to a virtual pick 'em – Tampa -108/Toronto -107 – by 9 a.m. ET. As of 11:30 a.m. ET, the Rays are -113 while taking 68 percent of bets and 64 percent of money. The total opened at 10.5 flat (-110) and saw the price adjust to Over -122, with 78 percent of bets on the Under and 52 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameRays vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Ryan Yarbrough (2-3, 4.24 ERA): The lefty has split time between the rotation and working as a bulk arm out of the bullpen, throwing multiple innings after Tampa deploys an opener. The results have been mixed, with Yarbrough doing a strong job at suppressing runs in a relief role while his worst outings have come in his starts. That includes his last time out when he allowed six runs on seven hits in Tampa's loss to the Baltimore Orioles.
Trent Thornton (1-1, 2.70 ERA): The struggling Ross Stripling was originally slated to start, but was scratched around 10:30 a.m. ET with Thornton now taking the mound today. The 27-year-old righty has made 14 appearances this season (two starts) and has 22 strikeouts and a 1.24 WHIP across 23 1-3 innings. Thornton has not pitched more than 2 2-3 innings in any appearance this season, so he will likely be used more as an opener with a bullpen game to follow.
Weather
The temperature is expected to be 84 degrees Fahrenheit and sunny for first pitch in Dunedin, with southwest winds of 5 mph and wind gusts of 7 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Rays: Kevin Kiermaier OF (Questionable).
Blue Jays: Cavan Biggio 3B (Out), Ryan Borucki RP (Out), George Springer OF (Out), Alejandro Kirk C (Out), David Phelps RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-1 in the Blue Jays' last five home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays.
Moneyline pick
The Rays are on a roll, reminding everyone where they stack up in the American League pecking order after reaching the World Series last season.
After a somewhat slow start, Tampa Bay is now 10 games over .500 and tied with the Red Sox for the division lead and can take sole possession of first place with a win on Monday.
But even though the Rays have a chance to take four straight from Toronto, these have been close games that could have gone either way. The Rays needed extras to win the first game of the series and used late rallies and a bullpen collapse by Toronto to take the next two.
But, as a result, the Blue Jays have dropped five straight after winning six of seven games. Pitching has been the biggest culprit behind the slide and the Blue Jays will again be tested with Thornton on the mound. Their bullpen has slipped recently (4.46 ERA over the last two weeks compared to a 3.34 mark on the season that ranks fifth in baseball) and Thornton will not likely give the team much length, so Toronto is likely going to have to lean on a group that has allowed runs from the eighth inning on in every game this series.
Even with Toronto's unfavorable pitching results, Tampa doesn't have a big advantage here. Yarbrough, just as much as Thornton and the bullpen, is susceptible to getting blown up and has shown that multiple times throughout the season.
The Blue Jays have a potent offense that does serious damage at home and we like that to be the difference in today's game. Getting them at plus money doesn't hurt, either. Back the Blue Jays to end their skid and snap the Rays' winning streak.
PREDICTION: Blue Jays (+105)
Over/Under pick
Hitters are going to miss taking hacks at TD Ballpark. The Blue Jays' temporary home for the start of the season has been one of baseball's best hitting environments, according to Statcast's park factor leaderboards, sitting behind only the bandbox known as Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.
The Over is 11-8-1 in the Blue Jays' 20 home games, while the club has gone 9-15 away from its minor league park. Toronto, backed by Vladimir Guerrero's Jr.'s ridiculous .411 batting average and 1.377 OPS at TD Ballpark, is No. 1 at home in the majors in FanGraphs' weighted runs created plus, and also leads MLB in on-base percentage and slugging. The Blue Jays have been a juggernaut offense at home and been a Bottom-10 club in those three categories on the road.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has performed much better offensively on the road and out of the pitcher-friendly Trop. The Rays are a Top-3 team in wRC+, OBP, and slugging on the road and the Over has cashed in five of their last six games outside of St. Petersburg. Overall, the Rays are 8-2 O/U in their last 10 contests, having scored six-plus runs in seven of their past eight and plating at least nine runs six different times during the double-digit win streak. Only four teams in the majors have cashed Overs more consistently than the Rays.
Thornton has been solid this year, but again, the likeliness of a bullpen game (where every reliever is at their best) is very unlikely.
While the Jays have hit righties harder than lefties this season, they're still a middle-of-the-pack club in nearly all major offensive categories with a southpaw on the mound. And the soft-tossing Yarbrough is a very hittable arm with little swing-and-miss stuff and has allowed at least five runs in four of his nine appearances.
A Thornotn and Yarbrough matchup is not going to buck these trends. Hit the Over and do it with confidence.
PREDICTION: Over 10.5 (-115)
Rays vs Blue Jays betting card
- Blue Jays (+105)
- Over 10.5 (-105)
Picks made on 5/23/2021 at 9:54 p.m. ET
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