Rays vs Mariners Predictions, Picks, Odds: Bats Come to Play on Sunday

The Mariners finally snapped out of their skid on Saturday with an 8-3 win over Tyler Glasnow and the Rays and will take aim at a series victory with their ace heading to the hill this afternoon. Will the pitching matchup be in the home team’s favor?

Let’s break down Rays vs. Mariners in our MLB picks and predictions for Sunday, July 2.

Rays vs Mariners odds

Rays vs Mariners predictions

Allow me to just say, Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo is a very good pitcher. I’ve got plenty of faith in his devastating fastball and his strikeout numbers are in elite territory with 28.3% of batters being retired via the punchout.

However, Castillo is vulnerable when he fails to miss bats. When contact is made, the risk of an extra-base hit or home run is high. Castillo has now allowed seven home runs this month and carries an ugly .413 expected slugging percentage into this start. His fly-ball rate has also soared to 24.8%, which is above the league average.

The Rays pack a real punch with their bats, too, ranking seventh in fly-ball rate with 15.2% of those fly balls turning into home runs, which is a league-best rate. The chances of the Rays popping some home runs are very high and I think Taj Bradley and his .416 xwOBA on contact may have some issues of his own with a Mariners offense that is waking up at the plate.

My best bet: Over 7.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

Rays vs Mariners same-game parlay

Over 7.5 (-114)

Luke Raley to hit a home run (+560)

Taj Bradley 6+ strikeouts (-188)

+1,383 at FanDuel

We’ve covered that I don’t like this matchup for Castillo. The Rays are a fly ball team with a ton of pop an lead the league in home run-to-fly ball ratio. So, we need to pick out a good candidate to take him yard.

Enter Luke Raley. He’s getting 28.1% of his balls in play to come back in the air and he’s one of the best around in the exit velocity department. His 50.8% hard-hit rate puts him in the Top 10% of all hitters and his 17.2% barrel rate in the Top 5%. With 14 homers this year, he’s a good call to go deep against the recently homer-prone Castillo.

The Mariners are also absolute strikeout machines. They have the second-worst mark in the league during the last two weeks at 27.6% and Bradley, who is a massive strikeout arm (12.4 K/9, 32.2 K%), should be able to sit down six here.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rays vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I’m definitely siding with the Rays here as underdogs. Bradley’s peripherals don’t match up with Castillo’s, in theory, considering his higher xERA, but he does carry a better xSLG than Castillo and his strikeout rate is a beefy 32.2%, which puts him in the Top 8% of all pitchers in the game.

The Mariners are strikeout machines at the plate. They did manage to pick up some much-needed offense on Saturday, but they still own a 100 wRC+ in the last two weeks and have walked in just 8.5% of their plate appearances.

Seattle is simply not consistently good at hitting, and that will help us arrive at the Rays on the moneyline. I trust Tampa Bay to win what will ultimately be a home run-hitting contest.

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The Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Mariners

Rays vs Mariners game info

Starting pitchers

Taj Bradley (5-4, 4.58 ERA): The rookie has begun to go backward in his progression after a strong start to his first season. He owns a 5.87 ERA in the month of June and is coming off a start against the Diamondbacks where he allowed seven runs on four homers.

Luis Castillo (5-6, 2.86 ERA): Castillo has also taken a step back with a 3.23 ERA in the month of June and has allowed a homer in each of his last four starts. He’s allowed multiple homers in three of those outings.

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