The Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros will continue their three-game series at Minute Maid Park on Tuesday night.
The Red Sox find themselves in a peculiar spot, as they’ve been both buying and selling ahead of today’s trade deadline. They traded catcher Christian Vazquez to the Astros during batting practice last night, then minutes later acquired Tommy Pham from the Reds.
Meanwhile, the Astros are clearly going for it, bringing in Vazquez along with Trey Mancini and Will Smith. They could be done dealing but are obviously a better team than they were 24 hours ago.
Find out how today’s game will play out with our free MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Astros on Tuesday, August 2.
Red Sox vs Astros odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Astros were initially listed as -187 consensus favorites, and that line has crept up slightly to about -200 at just about every site. The total opened at 8.0 and has held firm.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Red Sox vs Astros predictions
Picks made on 8/2/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Red Sox vs Astros game info
• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Tuesday, August 2, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, SportsNet Southwest
Red Sox vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Kutter Crawford (2-3, 4.15 ERA): Kutter Crawford alternated between Boston and Triple-A Worcester earlier in the year, but he appears to be in the majors to stay after authoring a 2.57 ERA over 28 innings in July. The 26-year-old rookie will face the Astros for the first time in his brief career in this spot.
Cristian Javier (6-6, 3.26 ERA): Cristian Javier has gone four straight outings without a quality start, pitching no more than five innings in each try. He owns a 5.79 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in that span while posting an 0-3 record. Perhaps most alarming for Javier of late is that he’s served up six homers over his last 18 2-3 innings on the mound.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between the Red Sox and Astros in Houston. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Astros
Red Sox vs Astros picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Red Sox appear to be rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, while the Astros are cruising to another division crown. The price is tough to swallow, but Houston has to be considered the better bet.
Kutter Crawford has acquitted himself well since joining Boston’s rotation — authoring a 0.95 WHIP over six starts — but the fledgling hurler has yet to exceed 18 outs. This means that the mediocre Red Sox bullpen will likely see plenty of playing time in this one.
Boston has authored a 4.25 ERA when pitching in relief this season, 25th in the major league. Ryan Brasier and Kaleb Ort both produced ERA above 10.00 in July, and Austin Davis (7.71 ERA) and Jake Diekman (6.57 ERA) weren’t much better. This unit recorded just four total saves in July, but part of that was due to the underachievement of the rest of their teammates.
Houston may be 14th in runs per game (4.52), but it’s capable of opening the floodgates at any time. The Astros are third in homers (1.42 per game) and fifth in OPS (.740), so they make their hits count. This offense seldom strikes out too, tallying the third-fewest whiffs in baseball.
Yordan Alvarez has gained some more intimidating teammates at the dish in Trey Mancini (.751 OPS) and Christian Vazquez (.759 OPS) over the last 24 hours — it will be interesting to see how manager Dusty Baker folds them in.
The trends do not favor the flagging Red Sox, who are 5-13 in their last 18 games against teams with winning records, and 3-11 in their last 14 games against right-handed starters.
The Astros are 20-6 in their last 26 tilts after scoring two or fewer runs in their previous one, and 36-15 in their last 51 home games against right-handed starters.
Prediction: Astros moneyline (-189 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
Christian Javier and the Houston relief corps should make light work of Boston’s bats in this one, leading the way to an Under.
Javier has gone 4-3 with a 2.55 ERA through 10 appearances (eight starts) at home in 2022, holding the opposition to a microscopic .153 batting average. Of the 11 home runs he’s allowed through 88 1-3 innings, eight have been solo shots.
The Dominican native should give Houston 15 to 18 outs before its top-ranked bullpen by ERA (2.77) takes over. Ryan Pressly blew a save on July 30 but has otherwise pitched effectively over his last 12 outings, recording seven saves in the process. Rafael Montero has nine scoreless appearance over his last 10 tries, and Bryan Abreu has blanked the opposition in 17 of his last 18 efforts.
The Red Sox have plated a modest 3.72 runs per game since the All-Star break, and aside from the slap-hitting Alex Verdugo, just about everyone in their lineup is underachieving. Yolmer Sanchez, hitting .071, and J.D. Martinez, hitting .115, are glaring examples. The potential return of Rafael Devers may not be enough of a shot in the arm for this unit.
Prediction: Under 8 (-105 at Caesars)
Best bet
Boston’s loss should be Houston’s gain on Tuesday night with Christian Vazquez set to make his Astros debut in this one.
Vazquez was the most productive hitter on the Red Sox roster since the All-Star break, hitting .342 with two round-trippers and six RBI. He had five hits over the weekend against the Brewers, two of which were doubles.
Of his 83 hits this season, 28 have gone for extra bases. He also has 22 multi-hit games in 2022. These are not overwhelming numbers, but the price on him to grab two or more bases in this one seems quite generous.
Look for Houston’s hot-hitting new backstop to make an immediate impact in this tilt.
Pick: Christian Vazquez Over 1.5 total bases (+150 at FanDuel)
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