With the Boston Red Sox’s sweep of the Cleveland Guardians, the team heads into its three-game series with the Toronto Blues Jays having won 19 of its 23 games in June.
Toronto is going the other direction, currently 3-7 in their last 10 and now tied for third in the American League East, a game and a half behind the Red Sox. They are looking to make up some ground in the next three days.
Can the Blue Jays keep pace or will the Red Sox add to their misery? Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays on June 27.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Red Sox opened at +152 and have moved as high as +163 — likely because they are trotting out pitcher Connor Seabold, who was called up from Triple-A Worcester last week. The Blue Jays started at -179 and saw their odds go as short as -192 at BetMGM, though -169 is available at WynnBet. The total has stayed at nine, with the Over -115 and the Under at +105.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays predictions
Picks made on 6/27/2022 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Monday, June 27, 2022
• First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, Sportsnet
Red Sox vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Connor Seabold (Triple-A: 5-1, 2.09 ERA): The 26-year-old right-hander gets his second opportunity to pitch in the majors. His first was last year against the Chicago White Sox where he went three innings and gave up two runs on three hits. At Triple-A Worcester, he has started 11 games, compiling a 5-1 record with a 2.09 ERA and a WHIP of 0.99.
Kevin Gausman (5-6, 3.19 ERA): Gausman started strong this season, especially in May when he went 4-2 and whittled his ERA down to 2.13 at one point. In June, however, he has struggled, losing three games and posting a 5.50 ERA for the month. His worst performance came 11 days ago when the Baltimore Orioles tagged him for seven runs on seven hits in just 2 1-3 innings.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Red Sox: Jarren Duran CF (Questionable), Enrique Hernandez CF (Out), Matt Barnes RP (Out).
Blue Jays: George Springer OF (Questionable), Danny Jansen C (Out), Yimi Garcia RP (Questionable), Trevor Richards RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Boston is 5-0 in their last five on the road against a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Red Sox vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
This is a tough game to handicap because the Boston Red Sox are going with a pitcher they just called up from Triple-A Worcester. Connor Seabold went three innings, allowing two runs on three hits, in his lone MLB start last season.
The only other stats we have on Seabold is his minor league record, which is solid. He is 5-1 with a 2.09 ERA at Triple-A this season.
Seabold has four pitches in his arsenal: a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, and curve. His fastball hovers in the low 90s and he relies on keeping batters off balance by leaning on his slider and changeup.
After he was called up on Saturday, he told reporters that he learned from his first appearance in the show.
“I felt like I tried to be too fine — not be myself out there,” Seabold said. “And then having the opportunity to come back out and just keeping doing what I’ve been doing these last few weeks in Triple-A — being myself.”
Having an unproven pitcher making his second start in the big leagues against Kevin Gausman, who was an All-Star last year, automatically makes the Blue Jays the favorite, right?
Not so fast. Gausman has struggled in June. His ERA for the month is 5.50 thanks to two horrendous. The first was to the Minnesota Twins, where he went 3 2-3 innings and allowed five runs on nine hits.
His second bad start was against the Orioles — his former team — where he gave up seven runs on seven hits in just 2 1-3 innings of work. For June, Gausman has allowed 11 earned runs and 29 hits in 18 innings.
Besides, the Red Sox are 6-0 in their last six following a win and are 6-0 in their last six games vs. a right-handed starter.
Prediction: Red Sox moneyline (+163 at BetRivers)
Over/Under analysis
There is no doubt the starting pitchers are going to give up runs and, with the high-powered offenses for both the Blue Jays and the Red Sox, the Over could be reached early.
The Red Sox have the best batting average in the majors at .261. They are also first in hits with 659, fourth in RBI with 339, and seventh with 351 runs scored. They are, however, just 20th in home runs with 70.
Boston has scored four or more runs in seven of their last eight. The Over is 7-1 in the Red Sox’s last eight games against a team with a winning record and is 4-1 in their last five road games against a team with a winning record.
The Blue Jays also rank in the Top 10 of most offensive categories. They are fourth in batting average (.255), sixth in hits (623), fifth in home runs (95), and 10th in runs (339).
Toronto’s totals trends are even more slanted to the Over than Boston's. The Over is 4-0 in their last four following a loss and is also 7-0 in their last seven games when the total is set at 9.0-10.5 and 9-1 in the Blue Jays last 10 home games against a right-handed starter.
Prediction: Over 9.0 (-115 at BetMGM)
Best bet
Whether it’s bad or unproven pitching, it is never going to fare well against good hitting. Both the Red Sox and Blue Jays are sending pitchers to the mound that might not get out of the fifth inning.
Seabold is an unknown quantity, and how well is he going to do on the road against a potent Blue Jays lineup? He might only go three innings like his only other major league start.
Against Toronto, who is fifth in home runs, they might get a couple off of a nervous Seabold, who has to depend on his movement with his pitches, especially if he's forced to use his relatively flat fastball. Plus, if his slider isn’t working, the changeup will be ineffective.
Gausman has been roughed up in two of his four games in June. In both of those, he allowed five or more runs by the fifth innings. In the two games, he didn’t get shelled, he still allowed two runs by the fifth inning. Boston's lineup is much tougher than the one Baltimore used to chase Gausman before he was even able to complete three frames.
Look for one or both pitchers to get roughed up and the Over to easily go past five runs by the fifth inning.
Pick: First five innings Over 5.0 (+100 at Caesars)
