Two teams looking to improve on playoff runs from last season will face off on Thursday as the Houston Astros host the New York Mets on Opening Day.
New York is sending new addition Clay Holmes to the mound, and I’m expecting him to lead his new team to a win in my Mets vs. Astros predictions below.
Let’s take a closer look at one of the more interesting Opening Day matchups in my free MLB picks for Thursday, March 27.
Mets vs Astros prediction
My Mets vs Astros best bet: Mets moneyline (+110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The New York Mets surprised many by reaching the NLCS last season, and then went out and improved their roster in the offseason. While the most notable acquisition was the titanic signing of Juan Soto, there were some smaller deals as well, including the signing of Clay Holmes, who will serve as the Opening Day starter for New York.
Holmes hasn’t started a game at the MLB level since his rookie year in 2018, serving as a closer for the Yankees over the last three years. But the Mets signed him with the intention of putting him in the rotation, and have shown confidence that he can make that leap.
It can be foolish to put much stock into Spring Training results, but the fact that Holmes allowed just two earned runs while striking out 23 batters through 19 1/3 innings as a starter is, at the very least, a promising development.
The Houston Astros are tapping Framber Valdez as their Opening Day starter. Valdez went 15-7 with a 2.91 ERA in 2024, and has been consistently good for Houston over the past three years, making All-Star Game appearances in 2022 and 2023. He posted his best career WHIP (1.106) last season while continuing to author strong peripherals, allowing just 0.7 home runs per nine innings while striking out nearly a batter per inning.
While I think Holmes can keep up with Valdez, there’s more certainty in what we’re getting from the Astros starter. However, he’s not likely to go deep in the game — Valdez has thrown five innings or less in his first starts in each of the past two years — which limits how much I’m letting the starters influence my analysis for today’s game.
Instead, I’m looking at the two lineups, which is what is tilting me towards the Mets. The addition of Soto adds length to what was already a solid lineup that averaged 4.74 runs per game last year. New York is also expecting a breakout year from Mark Vientos, and the Mets can stack the lineup with righties — other than Soto — to face off against Valdez, a southpaw.
I’m far less impressed by what the Astros have done with their lineup this season. Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker are gone, and while Isaac Paredes should limit how much Houston loses offensively, Houston hasn’t upgraded in the same way as New York.
The best lineup for the Astros is extremely heavy on right-handed bats, with Yordan Alvarez being the only notable exception. Holmes has shut down righties throughout his career, holding them to a .589 OPS and a .209 batting average.
The Mets have more offensive firepower here, and I don’t love the pitching matchup for the Astros. With plus money available, I’m taking New York to win outright on Opening Day.
Mets vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets moneyline
Under 8.5
NRFI
I may be taking the Mets to win, but I think both starting pitchers will find solid success today. That has me looking at a pair of Under bets for my same-game parlay.
First, I’m going to take the Under on the game total, though I’m moving it up a half-run to 8.5 to improve our chances without giving up much value. Since my confidence in the Under bet is mostly about Holmes and Valdez — neither of whom I expect to go deep this early in the season — I’ll also place a bet on no runs being scored in the first inning.
Both starters should get a couple strong innings in before these lineups begin to do some damage.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Astros odds
Mets vs Astros live odds
Mets vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +118 | Houston -127
- Run line: New York +1.5 | Houston -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Mets vs Astros trend
The Mets are 41-14 on Opening Day over the last 55 years. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Astros.
How to watch Mets vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Thursday, 3-27-2025 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, Space City Network |
| Mets starting pitcher | Clay Holmes (2024: 3-5, 3.14 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Framber Valdez (2024: 15-7, 2.91 ERA) |
Mets vs Astros latest injuries
Mets vs Astros weather
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