Red Sox vs Orioles Predictions, Picks, Odds: Mullins Hits 'em Hard

The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles will wrap up a three-game series in Baltimore this afternoon.

Each game in the series has been compelling and filled with entertainment. Last night was no exception, it saw the Red Sox win by a score of 8 to 6, but that hardly tells the whole story. Boston nearly choked away a 7-0 lead after the Os came roaring but in the ninth inning with five runs. 

What's the Best Bet for this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles on April 26. 

Red Sox vs Orioles odds

Red Sox vs Orioles predictions

The thing I feel strongest about in this game is that Tanner Houck's hard-hit ball issues will be exposed. With that in mind, I'm taking one of the best hitters on the opposing team who also hits the ball the hardest in the prop market.

Cedric Mullins has gone over 1.5 bases in four of five games he's faced the Red Sox this season. That makes for an average of 3.6 bases against them. He's been a Sox killer and is coming off a four-base performance last night. So, why stand in the way of that?

Houck is a breaking-ball-heavy pitcher. The slider and the sinker make up over half of his pitching arsenal, and he's looked uncomfortable when throwing pitches beyond his fastball. In addition, Houck has an issue giving up the hard-hit ball. If he didn't, his ERA would likely be an entire run lower, but it's a big issue. His hard-hit rate and exit velocity are in the Bottom 25% of baseball. 

Both things outlined above are issues when you're pitching to Mullins. He routinely hits the hardest balls of any player on the Orioles roster, especially when it comes to the pitches he'll see today. He leads the team in hard-hit rate against sliders, sinkers, and change-ups. In addition, he also leads the team in batting average against sliders and sinkers with no rates sitting over .300. This feels like a matchup made in heaven, right?

Houck has already pitched against this Baltimore team once this season and had his worst start of the season, surrendering three earned runs, including two home runs. I'm not sure he can do much to bounce back. This feels like a bad matchup. On that day, Mullins had another excellent performance. He homered off Houck in the third inning with what ended up being the hardest-hit ball in the game. It came off a breaking ball. Don't be surprised if lightning strikes twice. 

My best bet: Cedric Mullins over 1.5 bases (+105)

Red Sox vs Orioles moneyline analysis

I have the slightest lean toward the Orioles here, but it's not enough for me to place a bet. 

I projected a virtual coin flip here and will only give in to -110. Games between these two tend to have a lot of swings and lead changes — I wouldn't expect this one to be much different. 

Because of that, you'll likely get a better live number on Baltimore than any of the ones you're seeing pregame. I'd be interested in that more so than anything else here. Houck is prone to giving up hard-hit balls, and Baltimore isn't necessarily the team you want to be playing with, that being your pitching flaw.

Still, I don't think Wells matches up well here against Red Sox hitters. That means the game likely comes down to each team's bullpens, where I don't see much of a discernable edge. 

Red Sox vs Orioles Over/Under analysis

I lean Over here. My projections directly follow the available lines from most oddsmakers, but I still see a bit of value. The Over has been a profitable bet when these two are playing. The Red Sox have gone Over in their last five straight against the AL East, while the Os have gone Over at a 7-1 clip over its last eight against the AL East.

I've listed Houck’s flaws and why Baltimore should have success against him. But let's look at the other side. Wells has gotten off to an excellent start to the season, but he won't shy away from throwing the fastball. While it's been a good fastball, I'm not sure it's the type of pitch that can dominate games like some of the elite hurlers. 

It got him in trouble against the New York Yankees when he gave up four earned runs and five innings. It could do the same for him today. The Red Sox are littered with great fastball hitters, including Rafael Devers and Masataka Yoshida. 

So, Wells will either have to get off his fastball more, forcing him to throw uncomfortable pitches, or at the same rate he has previously, hoping it's good enough. Both of these scenarios are conducive to increased runs.

Red Sox vs Orioles game info

Red Sox vs Orioles betting preview

Starting pitchers

Tanner Houck (3-0, 4.29 ERA): Houck has probably yet to get some of the results indicative of a 3-0 pitcher. He's been a bit unlucky. If he can avoid the random hard-hit ball or home run, then Houck could be a key to the Red Sox season. However, his average exit velocity, hard-hit, and barrel rates are all below the league average — and it's hurt him. He's averaging one long ball for about every seven innings this season. That's not bad, but the biggest issue has been the multi-base hits. 

Tyler Wells (0-1, 2.70 ERA): It's been an excellent start to the season for Wells. He's done many of the little things right, like avoiding hard contact, walks, and creating a near-elite chase rate. Generally, pitchers with an elite fastball generate a ton of strikeouts, but when they give up contact, it's hard. That's not been the case for Wells — he has an elite fastball with some movement, and it's caused batters to chase other pitches. It's been the key to his success, and he's produced a batting average of just .172. With that said, there have been some uneven results for Wells. He gave up four earned runs to the New York Yankees in six innings but surrendered just three runs in over 17 innings outside that. 

Latest injuries

Trend to know

Cedric Mullins has gone over 1.5 bases in four of the five games against the Boston Red Sox this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Orioles

Weather

Pages related to this topic