Bitter rivals will battle in the Bronx as the Boston Red Sox visit the New York Yankees to kick off a three-game series on Friday night.
The Red Sox are still within striking range of a Wild Card spot in the American League as they face a desperate Yankees team that's slipped under .500.
Will Boston take care of business as road favorites in the MLB odds, or will New York finally get back in the win column? Find out in my free MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Yankees on Friday, August 18.
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
Red Sox vs Yankees predictions
The wind will be blowing out to right-center at 15 mph at Yankee Stadium, which is already a left-handed hitter's paradise. While the slumping New York Yankees might not be able to take advantage of this, the Boston Red Sox certainly can.
Chief among them and offering the best value on his props in the eyes of this handicapper is Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas. I'll be backing him to tally an RBI at a generous price.
Casas has typically lined up in the No. 6 spot in the order this year, but he could be slotted fifth by Alex Cora as he gets a good matchup with the right-handed Jhony Brito. Bettors should expect Rafael Devers, Justin Turner, Alex Verdugo, and Masataka Yoshida to take their at-bats in front of him and generate traffic on the bases, even though they've never seen this hurler before.
Brito has had a mediocre start to his major-league career, authoring a 4.76 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. The advanced metrics paint a grim picture, as Brito ranks in the 15th percentile or worse in xSLG, Barrel%, and K%.
His expected ERA is 5.28, so things could get worse for him before they get better, especially against the lefty-heavy Red Sox lineup. Lefties own a .804 OPS vs. Brito this year, compared to a .755 mark for righties.
Casas has been demonstrably better vs. righties this season, sporting a .869 OPS, compared to a .747 mark vs. southpaws. He has 48 RBIs this year, with 41 of those coming against right-handers over 278 at-bats (seven RBI over 66 at-bats vs. lefties). He's been able to take his show on the road in 2023, driving in 25 of his 48 RBI as a visitor.
It might be too bold to call for a Casas home run as a best bet, but that might be something worth sprinkling in tonight. Whether the ball stays in the park or not, I expect Casas to put a run on the scoreboard in the Bronx.
My best bet: Triston Casas Over 0.5 RBI (+155 at BetMGM)
Red Sox vs Yankees same-game parlay
Triston Casas Over 0.5 RBI
Masataka Yoshida Over 0.5 hits
Red Sox team total Over 4.5 runs
My three-leg SGP for tonight's game is highlighted by my best bet, which is a Casas RBI.
Of the other Red Sox I mentioned in my best bet breakdown, I feel most confident in Yoshida's ability to get a base hit. The runner up in AL Rookie of the Year odds gathered two hits yesterday to pull his average on the season back up to .300. He has at least one knock in 11 of his 12 starts in August.
I also feel good about the Red Sox getting to five runs. It's a number they've reached in four of their last six games, and they're seventh overall in runs per game on the season (4.83).
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Red Sox vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The consensus opening moneyline had the Red Sox as -121 favorites, and that's crept up to -125 at most sites as of Friday afternoon, with -130 being hung at others.
Brayan Bello toes the rubber for Boston, looking to build on his 1.93 ERA and .143 OBA over two starts (14 innings) vs. the Yankees in 2023. Though there are plenty of positives to take away from Bello's second season in the majors, one has to wonder if he's hit a wall to some extent based on his 5.67 ERA since the All-Star break.
That's steering me away from betting on the Boston moneyline, but based on the Yankees' sorry recent form (lost five straight and eight of their last 10 overall), it's hard to back the Bombers with any confidence whatsoever.
If forced to choose, the Red Sox would be my selection.
The total opened at 9 with about -115 juice on the Under at most shops, but the line has moved at the majority of sites to be -120 on the Over.
It's always difficult to back the Under with the wind blowing out to this degree at Yankee Stadium, even with the New York lineup in a tailspin.
I wouldn't expect Bello or Brito to just keep racking up zeroes, and neither bullpen is in great form this month. The Yankees are 13th in ERA and 16th in strand rate, while Boston checks in a dismal 29th in ERA and 27th in strand rate in the same span.
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Trend to know
The Red Sox are 5-1 in their last six games vs. the Yankees. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees
Red Sox vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Friday, August 18, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
Starting pitchers
Brayan Bello (8-7, 3.81 ERA): Sophomore hurler Brayan Bello is a sinker-baller (36.1%) that also works in a changeup (23.9%), four-seam fastball (21.5%), slider (16.6%), and the odd cutter (2%). An xERA of 4.21 suggests that the post-All-Star break regression Bello has suffered could continue tonight. That goes double on the road, where Bello owns a 4.37 ERA, compared to a 3.41 ERA at Fenway Park.
Jhony Brito (4-5, 4.76 ERA): Jhony Brito is a 25-year-old rookie that primarily offers a four-pitch mix of sinkers (32.5%), changeups (30.8%), curveballs (19.5%), and four-seam fastballs (15.7%), with the occasional slider (1.4%) served up to lefties. He'll be looking to improve on his 5.26 home ERA as he faces the Red Sox for the first time.
