The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees face off at Yankee Stadium on Thursday night.
This is the second contest in a four-game set, with the Bronx Bombers having edged out the BoSox in extra innings last night. With the Yankees closing in on their second AL East title in the last 10 years and sending ace Gerrit Cole to the mound, they enter this game as hefty -235 favorites.
Here are our best free MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Yankees on September 23.
Red Sox vs Yankees best odds
Red Sox vs Yankees picks and predictions
All eyes are on New York's superstar slugger Aaron Judge as he zeroes in on the Triple Crown, but I'm reluctant to back him tonight after Boston pitched around him with three walks yesterday
I'm more optimistic about another Yankee who has been red-hot at the dish, and that's infielder Gleyber Torres. The second-baseman is second on the team with 221 total bases in 133 games, and he's been raking lately, going 17-43 (.395 BA) at the plate over his last 10 games.
Torres mashes against southpaws like Red Sox starter Rich Hill, boasting a .530 slugging percentage versus lefties. He also hits better in the cozy confines of Yankee Stadium, where he has a .488 slugging percentage compared to his .398 SLG on the road.
I'm grabbing Over 1.5 total bases for Torres at plus money.
My best bet: Torres Over 1.5 total bases (+140 at DraftKings)
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Red Sox vs Yankees moneyline analysis
After beating the Sox 5-4 last night, the Yankees have the second-best record in the American League (91-58) and a 7.5-game lead on the Blue Jays atop the AL East.
The Bronx Bombers are fourth in the majors with an OPS of .753. Although they've been incredibly streaky at the plate (swinging from a .835 OPS in July to a .651 OPS in August), they've been red-hot lately, boasting a .858 OPS over the last 15 days despite the absence of D.J. LeMahieu and Matt Carpenter.
The Red Sox are 72-77, and while they technically haven't been eliminated from the postseason, they are 10 games back of the final Wild Card spot with just 13 games remaining. Led by Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts, the Red Sox have a formidable lineup that ranks ninth in the majors in OPS (.731).
Tonight, that lineup will take on Gerrit Cole, who is a strikeout machine but has been just as streaky as New York's bats have been this season.
Cole has outstanding numbers when it comes to strikeout rate (32.6%) and opponent batting average (.208) but has also given up too many home runs, and his barrel rate is among the bottom 20th percentile of pitchers. Cole is fresh off a rough outing against the Brewers and has a 5.48 ERA (albeit with a .205 OBA) in four starts versus Boston this year.
The Red Sox will respond with southpaw Rich Hill. The lefty owns a dismal 4.70 ERA through 23 starts and has been even worse since returning from the IL in August, pitching to a 5.65 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP over his last eight outings.
The 42-year-old has logged more than five innings just once in his last nine starts, which means that Alex Cora will be reliant on a bullpen that has pitched to an MLB-worst 5.43 ERA since the All-Star break.
Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under analysis
The Yankees are plating a whopping 7.36 runs per game over the last 15 days, and the Red Sox have averaged a respectable 4.91 runs/game over the same period of time.
Hill typically generates soft contact, but that has a lot to do with how low in velocity his pitches are. Four-seamers make up 35.8% of his arsenal, and he throws them at just 88.5 mph. This will get abused by this Yankees lineup that is third in the majors with a .443 slugging percentage versus lefties.
As dominant as the hard-throwing Cole can be at times, he has been erratic this season, and the Over has cashed in all four of his starts against Boston. Meanwhile, the Over is 7-3 in Hill's last 10 starts while going 5-0 in the Yankees' previous five contests at home.
It's also worth mentioning that there's a stiff 12 mph breeze blowing out towards that short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium tonight.
Red Sox vs Yankees trend to know
The Yankees are 50-19 in their last 69 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees
Red Sox vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Friday, September 23, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
Starting pitchers
Rich Hill (7-7, 4.70 ERA): The 42-year-old has pitched to a 1.34 WHIP with an OBA of .264 in 23 starts this year. The lefty has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts, pitching to a 6.62 ERA with a 1.81 WHIP over that span.
Gerrit Cole (12-7, 3.41 ERA): The five-time All-Star and last year's AL Cy Young runner-up has been a bit volatile this season. His 1.03 WHIP, 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings, and .208 OBA are all very impressive, but he has also allowed the second-most home runs in the majors (29). Cole has surrendered four earned runs in each of his last two starts — which includes an ugly performance against the Red Sox 10 days ago where he gave up three dingers.
Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries
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Red Sox vs Yankees weather
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