The reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers (4-2) opened their first home series with a convincing 9-3 win over the rebuilding Cincinnati Reds (2-5), and look to get back to work on Friday night with Tony Gonsolin taking the mound.
The Reds will send out second-year pitcher Vladimir Gutierrez, and oddsmakers see this going one way with the Reds being made as +210 underdogs.
Will the Dodgers take care of business or will the Reds put up enough of a fight to put feet in the mouths of Vegas?
Continue reading our free MLB picks and predictions for the Reds vs Dodgers matchup on Friday, April 15th.
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Reds vs Dodgers odds+
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Dodgers opened as -225 favorites and are currently as high as -250. The total opened slightly juiced to the Under at 9.5, and has since moved to a 9 with the edge to the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Reds vs Dodgers predictions
Picks made on 4/15/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Reds vs Dodgers game info
• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Friday, April 15, 2022
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Apple TV+
Reds vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Vladimir Gutierrez (0-1, 4.15 ERA): Gutierrez is a young arm that made his majors debut last year, pitching to a 9-6 record and 4.75 ERA. There was some hype for Gutierrez as an emerging talent in the offseason, especially given the Reds' track record of developing starting pitchers (Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Anthony DeSclafani), and he had an okay outing the first time around against the Braves (4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K).
Tony Gonsolin (0-0, 3.00 ERA): Gonsolin is a bit further along and has served as a solid spot starter and long relief guy for the Dodgers over the years, with a sub-3.00 ERA. Gonsolin has quality stuff but notably does not eat up innings, not once going six or more innings last year in his 15 appearances.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Reds: Jonathan India 2B (Questionable), Tommy Pham LF (Questionable), Donovan Solano 2B (Out).
Dodgers: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Last year the Reds played to a 41-33-5 (55.4%) record towards the Over coming off of a loss, the fifth-highest rate in the league. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Dodgers.
Reds vs Dodgers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Tony Gonsolin is one of the more interesting pitchers in the league. On one hand, Gonsolin has pitched to a career 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his four seasons thus far, and pitchers with those marks don't grow on trees.
On the other hand, Gonsolin is not the type of starting pitcher to eat up innings reliably, going six or more innings just four times in his 36 career appearances.
For that reason, there's an argument that his stellar numbers are offset by being so resource-intensive on the bullpen since he needs more supplemental help than others. His 2021 campaign was a little curious, as he noticeably lost velocity and spin on all four of his pitches (fastball, split-finger, slider, and curve) compared to his 2020 numbers.
The fastball dip was particularly troublesome given that it is obviously his most used pitch, and his batting average allowed on that pitch jumped from .212 in 2019 to 2020, to .298 last year.
As a result, his 2.60 ERA in his first two seasons jumped to 3.23 and his WHIP similarly went from 0.92 to 1.35. In his first outing this year (which is an admittedly small sample of three innings), his pitch velocity mirrored his slower 2021 numbers and his spin rates continued to go down.
The most concerning was his split-finger, which has dropped steadily from 1998 rotations per minute in 2019 to 1134 last Saturday, representing a 43% decrease. Even if we ignore this year's small sample, his mark of 1448 RPM last year would be a 27% decrease in spin rate.
While Gonsolin escaped his first outing of 2022 with just one earned run, he did allow five hits and a walk in those three innings against a Rockies lineup that is firmly below average. To his benefit, he'll take the mound on Friday night against the Reds.
Cincinnati ranks around league average in runs per game (4.29) but other metrics point toward the Reds being rather subpar. They rank 27th in OPS and 29th in WRC+, while striking out at the sixth-highest rate thus far (26.1%).
And to that point, it probably doesn't take a genius to know that the Dodgers' lineup is much better. But for those keeping track at home, Los Angeles ranks fifth in OPS and WRC+, 12th in HardHit percentage, and has the eighth-lowest strikeout rate.
But the point still remains that Gonsolin can't be relied on to go deep, plus the underlying metrics on his pitches are worrisome. Having to lay upwards of -250 to back him may be a bit too much to swallow, so you'd be better off just taking the underdog here.
Prediction: Reds ML (+210 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
If the idea here is that Gonsolin won't be able to keep the bases clean and that the Dodgers hitters are proficient enough in a vacuum, then leaning towards the Over is the play.
Tonight's game projects to reach near 80% humidity, which means the air is less dense and balls will travel further than usual. The wind will also be blowing out at 11 MPH which isn't an amount to get overly excited about, but every edge counts.
On top of that, this year marks the first time humidors are being used in all 30 ballparks, and Dodger Stadium is one of many stadiums this year using it for the first time.
Humidors store balls at a standardized 50% humidity, which means the ball will be drier relative to the outdoor environment. Simply put, drier balls travel farther than moist ones.
Prediction: Over 9 (-105 at BetMGM)
Best bet
There is admittedly a lot more to consider with tonight's matchup than you would typically expect in a projected one-sided matchup, and it's for that exact reason that you would be best suited to side with long odds in the face of entropy.
Granted, that may have not worked last night when the Reds lost 9-3 in the opening game of the series, but the next two largest underdogs thus far have won 13-2 (OAK vs TB on 4/11) and 11-2 (WAS vs ATL on 4/11). Again, there are a lot of concerns regarding Gonsolin's advanced metrics and it would be no surprise if he continued to let batters on base.
The Dodgers do, however, have one of the better bullpens in the league, pitching to a league-best 0.80 WHIP thus far a year after finishing third in the same category and third in ERA.
To that point, the Reds ranked 27th in bullpen ERA and 20th in WHIP last year, and rank 24th and 25th in that regard this year already. For these reasons, it might be better to look at the first five innings where we can eliminate that discrepancy while giving up very little in terms of odds.
Pick: Reds F5 (+200 at DraftKings)
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