The Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs begin a three-game series at Wrigley Field on Friday afternoon. Neither of these clubs has a shot at the postseason but with nearly identical records this should be a competitive series.
MLB betting lines opened with the Cubbies as slim -135 home favorites for today's matinee matchup with the Over/Under at 8.0. Here are my best free Rockies vs. Cubs MLB betting picks and predictions on September 16.
Rockies vs Cubs best odds
Rockies vs Cubs picks and predictions
Rockies' starter German Marquez has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this season, throwing 6.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the league average according to EV Analytics.
That has led to the right-hander pitching deeper into games and correlates to him cashing the pitching outs Over in 18 of his last 22 contests (for a profit of +13.35 Units and a 47% ROI)
Marquez has some of the most extreme home/away splits in baseball which is understandable when he plays his home games at the hitter's paradise of Coors Field. He's been much more effective on the road where he has pitched at least six full innings in each of his last 11 starts.
He'll also benefit from a struggling Cubs lineup that is banged up with at least four regular starters out with injuries (Willson Contreras, Seiya Suzuki, Nick Madrigal, and Rafael Ortega) and a fifth (Nico Hoerner) questionable.
My best bet: German Marquez Over 17.5 outs (-125 at BetMGM)
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Rockies vs Cubs betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
These clubs have almost identical records, with the Rockies last in the NL West with a 62-81 record and the Cubs sitting at a 61-82 mark. That said, neither has thrown in the towel yet with Colorado winning five of its last seven contests and the Cubbies coming off a three-game road sweep of the NL East-leading New York Mets.
The Rockies will send Marquez to the mound. The right-hander has an ugly 5.25 ERA with an OBA of .266 but he's been much better away from Coors Field, pitching to a 3.58 ERA with an OBA of .207 in 12 road starts.
Marcus Stroman will toe the rubber for the Cubs. Stroman has sizzled on the road with a 1.84 ERA and .213 OBA across 12 starts. However, his home starts have not gone according to plan and he has a miserable 7.11 ERA with a .285 OBA in nine starts at Wrigley.
Both of these clubs are below average when it comes to hitting. The Rockies' batting numbers are always inflated by playing at Coors but their OPS on the road has ranked near the bottom of the majors for the last few years and is sitting at just .624 this season.
The Rockies' hard-hit rate is 19th in the majors while their barrel rate is just 28th which are indications that they simply don't make good contact. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 15th in the majors with an OPS of .703 with their hard-hit rate ranking 22nd and their barrel rate 23rd.
Over/Under analysis
Stroman is a ground-ball specialist but opposing batters have vastly increased their average launch angle against him over the last few years. For the first five years of his career, he never had an average launch angle over 1.0, but that number has surged above 5.0 in each of his last three years and is a career-high 7.2 this season.
Stroman has been awful at home and while Marquez typically pitches better away from Coors, he has struggled at Wrigley in his career. Marquez gave up seven hits and five runs in three innings at Wrigley last season and surrendered eight runs through 5 1-3 innings in his previous trip here in 2019.
Both of these starters have been getting hit hard this season. Stroman is in the bottom 13th percentile of pitchers in hard-hit rate (43.3%) and Marquez has the second-worst hard-hit rate (48.1%) of all MLB starters.
That said, as bad as these pitchers have been the hitting for both sides has also been awful — especially over the last 30 days where the Rockies have a .666 OPS and the Cubs have a .658 OPS.
The Under has gone 7-1 in Chicago's last eight games while going 8-2 in the Rockies previous 10 contests on the road.
It's always crucial to check out the weather before betting the total at Wrigley and this afternoon there's an 8.5 mph breeze blowing out towards left field.
Rockies vs Cubs game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Friday, September 16, 2022
• First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
• TV: AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountains, Marquee Sports Network
Starting pitchers
German Marquez (8-10, 5.25 ERA): Marquez has struggled this season, and although his ERA is inflated from playing at Coors Field, his expected ERA of 4.67 isn't much better. His 5.25 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and opponent slugging percentage of .475 are his worst numbers since his rookie campaign in 2016. In his last start, he was shredded for nine runs in four innings against the Diamondbacks, but the Rockies ended up winning because that's just what happens in the thin air at Coors.
Marcus Stroman (3-7, 3.91 ERA): Stroman was an All-Star in 2019 but his play has dipped in his first season with the Cubbies. He has a solid 1.20 WHIP with an OBA of .243 in 21 starts this year but he's been getting hit hard and has struggled at home. In his previous outing last Saturday, he surrendered seven hits and four runs in four innings vs. the Giants.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Rockies are 18-46 in their last 64 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Cubs
