The Minnesota Twins have stumbled out of the gate in 2022, going 2-4 in their opening homestand at Target Field.
After blowing leads in their first two games to the rival Yankees, Boston has regained traction and won three out of its last four.
Friday marks Boston's home opener at Fenway Park. Can the Twins spoil the party or will the Red Sox send their fans home happy?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Twins vs. Red Sox on Friday, April 15.
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Twins vs Red Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The line opened at -110 for both teams, with the total set at 10.5. Money has since come in on the Red Sox to bump Boston to slight favorites at -120, while the Over/Under has been bet down a full point to 9.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Twins vs Red Sox predictions
Picks made on 4/15/2022 at 5:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Twins vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Friday, April 15, 2022
• First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN
Twins vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Joe Ryan (2021: 2-1, 4.05 ERA): A draft pick of the Rays, Ryan was dealt to the Twins last season as a part of the Nelson Cruz trade. Ryan made two starts in his rookie season for Minnesota last year and started on Opening Day for Minnesota against Seattle. After giving up a two-run homer to the fourth batter of the game, Ryan held his own against the Mariners, allowing only one hit over the next three innings.
Nick Pivetta (2021: 9-8, 4.53 ERA): The Canadian right-hander faced a tough test against the Bronx Bombers in his first start of 2022, giving up a pair of two-run bombs in a loss to the Yankees. Pivetta faced the majority of the Twins' starting lineup in spring training, going three scoreless with five strikeouts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Twins: Alex Kirilloff LF (Out).
Red Sox: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 13-3-1 in Boston's last 17 after scoring five runs or more in its previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Red Sox.
Twins vs Red Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Carlos Correa era in Minnesota hasn't gotten off to a great start. While Byron Buxton already has three home runs, the rest of the Twins bats are struggling mightily and haven't provided Correa with much of a supporting cast.
Gio Urshela isn't an ideal cleanup hitter and is only slashing .214/.313/.429 through five games. It also may be time to give up on former promising slugger Miguel Sano. The 28-year-old has yet to register a hit on the season and remains a massive strikeout liability.
The same can be said for the newly added Gary Sanchez. While the catcher possesses extreme power, his strikeout rate is one of the reasons why the Yankees traded him in the offseason. The Twins are averaging just 3.3 runs so far in 2022, 24th in the MLB.
Boston's lineup remains loaded, with names like Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Trevor Story operating in the middle of the order.
Devers is off to a phenomenal start, slugging .346/.370/.577. Story struggled a bit out of the gate with his new team but is coming off a two-hit performance in a win against Detroit in Boston's latest game. The Green Monster could be a huge beneficiary for Story offensively, although the second baseman consistently hits to all sides of the field.
I figure this pitching matchup to be quite equal, but the batting lineup is an absolute mismatch in Boston's favor. Factor in this being the home opener at a packed Fenway Park on a Friday afternoon, and I think Red Sox fans are in for a treat.
Prediction: Red Sox ML (-110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Fenway Park is one of my favorite parks to bet the Over. The Red Sox have scored six or more runs in three games already this season, and are coming off-putting a nine-spot up on Detroit.
Boston's offense didn't disappoint last season after previous high-scoring games, and this is the same lineup after you swap Kyle Schwarber for Story. When leadoff man Kike Hernandez gets hot, the Red Sox become a different beast. Hernandez has three doubles and a home run over his last nine at-bats.
The jury is still out on Boston's bullpen, so we could see the Twins put up some late runs as well. This game could very well be out of hand by the final few innings, so Minnesota could face some of Boston's lower-leverage relievers.
Play the Over, and if you're feeling gutsy, put some moolah on a run being scored in the first inning.
Prediction: Over 9.5 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
Xander Bogaerts and the Red Sox are currently trending in the news, but not for the reasons you would expect.
The All-Star shortstop was reportedly offered a four-year deal worth $90 million. This would basically replace his current three-year deal worth $60 million if he opted out at the end of the season, with an extended fourth year worth $30 million.
"A friend of Bogaerts referred to Boston's bid as a 'slap in the face'," according to Jon Heyman, so look for the Red Sox star to take out his frustrations at the plate during contract talks.
Bogaerts is coming off a rest day against the Tigers on Wednesday, so he should be extra-ready to take some cuts against a young inexperienced Twins pitcher.
Bank on the X-Man having a big day at the plate.
Pick: Bogaerts Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at bet365)
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