The Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees will meet for Game 2 of a doubleheader in the Bronx tonight.
New York took the first game between these two on Monday afternoon beyond a strong performance from Aaron Judge in a 5-2 win. For Minnesota, it dropped one game behind the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central's race for first.
Who will grab the third game of this set? Find out our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Twins vs. Yankees on Wednesday, September 7, 2022.
Twins vs Yankees best odds
Twins vs Yankees picks and predictions
Conditions are good — not great — for the long ball in Yankee Stadium, two pitchers give them up, and two teams know how to hit them. Someone will hit a home run today, it's almost inevitable. Aaron Judge seems to be the most likely candidate, but there's a fine line I won't cross when playing a home run bet.
If I could wager on multiple home runs in this game or both teams to hit a home run, I would. I searched far and wide to find them and had no success. So instead, I've settled on both teams to score multiple runs.
This is easily the most EV+ wager in this game, and I'm projecting both teams to score three or more runs. When it comes to just two? That happens over 68% of the time in my simulations. That implied probability listed on BetMGM as of publication was 53.4%. That gives us a remarkable edge of over 15%. I cannot pass that up.
Both of these pitchers have issues with their barrel rates.
I've picked against Gerrit Cole in some solid spots this season. It's often felt like he's given an elite blanket pitcher price point, and sometimes, the matchup hasn't agreed with that. While I can't quite get to playing the Twins today, this is one of those times. Cole has a barrel rate in the bottom 30% of qualified pitchers, ranking eighth in home runs allowed per nine innings.
He'll be getting a team that can attack that weakness tonight, as they have the fourth-best barrel rate in baseball. Minnesota has scored two or more runs in nine of its last 10 games, and I expect the Twins to do it again tonight in a matchup that's a bit more favorable than the public may think.
For Minnesota's Joe Ryan, his barrel rate issues are even worse. He ranks in the bottom 15% among qualified pitchers in barrel rate. The Yankees rank second in baseball in barrel rate. Like the pitcher opposing him, his opponent presents a natural strength on his weakness. I expect this Bronx offense to get into a rhythm as the postseason draws closer. I love them to score at least two runs in Yankee Stadium tonight, as they average five runs per game there.
This is a misprice by BetMGM. My projections have it closer to -200, so let's take advantage of that price and cash back-to-back best bets on this series.
My best bet: Both teams to score 2+ runs (-110 at BetMGM)
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Twins vs Yankees betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The price hasn't quite gotten to where I want it to be to back the Twins, but I'll watch to see if it does. My projections see a play on the Twins at anything better than +178. As of publication, the best odds I could find were around +170.
The threshold for the price is so high because I am not personally a fan of Joe Ryan, nor is my model. He has often struggled against lineups like the ones the Yankees present. Five-run showings against the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers immediately come to mind.
Their lineup profile is pretty similar to the one the Yankees present. New York hits flyball pitchers well, just like both of those previously mentioned teams do.
I'm not backing Cole at this current price, given the matchup. He has shown issues to struggle to keep the ball inside the park at times, and though he's been good to end the season, he's still not worthy of backing at this current price. However, the Twins have some of the most underrated hitters in baseball and are more than capable of taking advantage of his issues.
There's not much of a lean here at the current prices. I like the Twins at +178 or better, and the Yankees live at -130. If Minnesota seems to be barreling up the ball well early, then I'll look to play their run line.
Over/Under analysis
This is a strikingly similar handicap to yesterday when these two teams met. I'm giving the Over a bit of a pregame look but will wait to bet it live.
I have both teams scoring 3 runs today over 50% of the time. I'm looking for a scoreless first inning to back the Over live at 5.5. I've already documented to a great degree why each lineup presents issues for the opposing pitcher. Here are a few trends that favor the over in this spot:
This total is a bit too low: My best bet involves both teams scoring runs. However, you'll get better value on this total live. These pitchers should pitch scoreless opening frames, as both usually start well. That opens up the value. Look to hit the Over at 5.5 or better. There's a decent likelihood that one of these pitchers has a rough outing and a high probability that both give up a few.
Twins vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• Date: Wednesday, September 7, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
Starting pitchers
Joe Ryan (10-7, 3.88 ERA): Although not as a prolific pitcher as Cole, some of Joe Ryan's issues mirror Coles. His barrel rate is significantly worse, ranking in the bottom 20% of all pitchers, and his average exit velocity follows a similar path.
Ryan relies on strikeouts and swings and misses. When he doesn't get enough of them, he has some issues. His flyball rate jumps out and is well above the league average; that tends to be a problem when you combine that with barrel issues. It's why he's had issues with big bats such as the Dodgers, Astros, and Red Sox. He's given up five or more earned runs to those teams at least once this season and multiple home runs. When he's getting whiffs, Ryan can be a fine pitcher, but he walks that double-edged sword finely. In his last outing, he was hit hard by the Red Sox for five earned runs in five innings.
Gerrit Cole (10-7, 3.28 ERA): I've remarked several times throughout the season that Cole's market treatment hasn't exactly represented who he's been. Cole is still an outstanding pitcher and can dominate games from time to time. However, he is often priced as an elite pitcher, and I'm not sure he's still that. Cole still has impressive peripherals regarding anything that has to do with strikeouts. His overall K rate is most notable and sets in the Top 10% of pitchers.
But what's stood out negatively this season is his barrel rate, which ranks in the bottom 30% of pitchers. It was the culprit in most of his blow-up starts this season, along with an average hard-hit rate. Although it's improved from his past two seasons, it's still been an issue. However, Cole's August was solid. Despite a 1-4 record, he posted a 3.2 ERA and kept the Yankees in every game. He gave up two earned runs in seven innings of work in his outing.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Over 12-3 in the last 16 meetings between these two teams in New York. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs.
