The Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees will meet for Game 2 in the Bronx tonight.
New York took the first game between these two yesterday afternoon beyond a strong performance from Aaron Judge in a 5-2 win. For Minnesota, it dropped one game behind the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central's race for first.
Who will grab the second game of this set? Find out our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Twins vs. Yankees on Tuesday, September 6, 2022.
Twins vs Yankees best odds
Twins vs Yankees picks and predictions
The story of today is similar to the one of yesterday.
Conditions are good — not great — for the long ball in Yankee Stadium, two pitchers give them up, and two teams know how to hit them. Someone will hit a home run today, it's almost inevitable. Aaron Judge seems to be the most likely candidate, but there's a fine line I won't cross when playing a home run bet.
If I could wager on multiple home runs in this game or both teams to hit a home run, I would. I searched far and wide to find them and had no success. So instead, I've settled on both teams to score multiple runs.
This is easily the most EV+ wager in this game, and I'm projecting both teams to score three or more runs. When it comes to just two? That happens over 68% of the time in my simulations. That implied probability listed on BetMGM as of publication was 53.4%. That gives us a remarkable edge of over 15%. I cannot pass that up.
Both of these pitchers have issues with their barrel rates.
I've picked against Gerrit Cole in some solid spots this season. It's often felt like he's given an elite blanket pitcher price point, and sometimes, the matchup hasn't agreed with that. While I can't quite get to playing the Twins today, this is one of those times. Cole has a barrel rate in the bottom 30% of qualified pitchers, ranking eighth in home runs allowed per nine innings.
He'll be getting a team that can attack that weakness tonight, as they have the fourth-best barrel rate in baseball. Minnesota has scored two or more runs in nine of its last 10 games, and I expect the Twins to do it again tonight in a matchup that's a bit more favorable than the public may think.
For Minnesota's Joe Ryan, his barrel rate issues are even worse. He ranks in the bottom 15% among qualified pitchers in barrel rate. The Yankees rank second in baseball in barrel rate. Like the pitcher opposing him, his opponent presents a natural strength on his weakness. I expect this Bronx offense to get into a rhythm as the postseason draws closer. I love them to score at least two runs in Yankee Stadium tonight, as they average five runs per game there.
This is a misprice by BetMGM. Draftkings is listed at -160, and my projections have it closer to -200. So let's take advantage of that price and cash back-to-back best bets on this series.
My best bet: Both teams to score 2+ runs (-115 at BetMGM)
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Twins vs Yankees betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The price hasn't quite gotten to where I want it to be to back the Twins, but I'll watch to see if it does. My projections see a play on the Twins at anything better than +178. As of publication, the best odds I could find were around +170.
The threshold for the price is so high because I am not personally a fan of Joe Ryan, nor is my model. He has often struggled against lineups like the ones the Yankees present. Five-run showings against the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers immediately come to mind.
Their lineup profile is pretty similar to the one the Yankees present. New York hits flyball pitchers well, just like both of those previously mentioned teams do.
I'm not backing Cole at this current price, given the matchup. He has shown issues to struggle to keep the ball inside the park at times, and though he's been good to end the season, he's still not worthy of backing at this current price. However, the Twins have some of the most underrated hitters in baseball and are more than capable of taking advantage of his issues.
There's not much of a lean here at the current prices. I like the Twins at +178 or better, and the Yankees live at -130. If Minnesota seems to be barreling up the ball well early, then I'll look to play their run line.
Over/Under analysis
This is a strikingly similar handicap to yesterday when these two teams met. I'm giving the Over a bit of a pregame look but will wait to bet it live.
I have both teams scoring 3 runs today over 50% of the time. I'm looking for a scoreless first inning to back the Over live at 5.5. I've already documented to a great degree why each lineup presents issues for the opposing pitcher. Here are a few trends that favor the over in this spot:
This total is a bit too low: My best bet involves both teams scoring runs. However, you'll get better value on this total live. These pitchers should pitch scoreless opening frames, as both usually start well. That opens up the value. Look to hit the Over at 5.5 or better. There's a decent likelihood that one of these pitchers has a rough outing and a high probability that both give up a few.
Twins vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• Date: Tuesday, September 6, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
Starting pitchers
Joe Ryan (10-7, 3.88 ERA): Info
Gerrit Cole (10-7, 3.28 ERA): Info
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
[Stat]. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs.
