Happy Father’s Day to all the fathers in the world! What better way to end Father’s Day than with Sunday Night Baseball?
The White Sox got to Justin Verlander in yesterday’s 7-0 win to even the series at one game apiece. Today, they’ll send Michael Kopech and his sub-2.00 ERA to the mound to face off with another promising youngster in Houston’s Christian Javier.
Will the Astros (40-25) add to their AL West-best record, or will the White Sox (31-32) reach .500?
Read our MLB picks and predictions for Sunday Night Baseball between the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros to find out.
White Sox vs Astros odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Astros opened -175 and the line has not moved as of this writing. The total is set at an even 8.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
White Sox vs Astros predictions
Picks made on 6/19/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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White Sox vs Astros game info
• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Sunday, June 19, 2022
• First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
White Sox vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Michael Kopech (2-2, 1.92 ERA): It’s a sign of how little run support the White Sox are giving Kopech that he has a 2-2 record despite having one of the lowest ERAs in baseball. His 3.15 xERA and 3.12 FIP are both well above his ERA, so some regression may be coming. He’s striking out only 8.9 batters per nine innings while waking 4.18 of them. The issue with walks is one reason that his record is as minuscule as it is because it causes him to have trouble pitching deep into games.
Cristian Javier (3-3, 3.20 ERA): Javier has made 12 appearances with eight of them being starts. He’s been very solid, compiling a 3.20 ERA and an encouraging 2.93 xERA. His peripherals are mostly solid, although his 3.99 xFIP is well above his 3.04 actual FIP. He strikes out a ton of batters (11.19 per nine innings) but issues some walks (3.38 walks per nine). Overall, it’s an encouraging profile for a 25-year-old.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
White Sox: Tim Anderson SS (Out), Yoan Moncada 3B (Out), Eloy Jimenez LF (Out), Yasmani Grandal C (Out), Kyle Crick RP (Out), Liam Hendriks RP (Out), Michael Kopech RP (Out), Aaon Bummer RP (Out), Garrett Crochet RP (Out).
Astros: Hector Neris RP (Probable),Taylor Jones 1B (Out), Jeremy Pena SS (Out), Jake Myers CF (Out), Hector Neris RP (Out), Blake Taylor RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The White Sox are 5-1 in their last six road games. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Astros
White Sox vs Astros picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
We backed the White Sox on the moneyline and attacked their team total Over with our best bet yesterday. Chicago came through for us on both fronts with a 7-0 victory over Justin Verlander and Houston.
In our handicap of yesterday’s matchup, we pointed out that these lineups have been performing at a relatively even rate.
Over the last 10 days, Chicago ranks fifth in OPS, fourth in wOBA, and third in wRC+.
In that same time span, Houston ranks ninth in OPS, ninth in wOBA, and eighth in wRC+. The numbers speak for themselves. Even short-handed, the White Sox have found a way to make things work and are actually performing better at the plate recently than the Astros are.
It’s reflected in the standings, too. Houston still sits atop the AL West but is tied with the White Sox over the last 10 days with a 5-5 record.
The pitching matchup is relatively close, as both teams will send quality young starters to the mound. I give the slight edge to Kopech and his 1.92 ERA and 4.5% barrel rate.
I have similar thoughts as yesterday. I think this is a close matchup and the value sides with the underdog. I liked the odds we were getting yesterday much better, but I still lean toward Chicago.
Prediction: White Sox moneyline (+150 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
It’s a difficult handicap in the sense that both lineups are performing at a Top-10 rate recently (Top 5 in Chicago’s case) but both teams are also sending quality pitchers to the mound.
Kopech’s peripherals (3.15 xERA, 3.12 xERA, 4.50 xFIP) indicate some regression is coming. He’s not striking out as many batters as you would anticipate. Out of the bullpen a year ago, he had a massive 13.4 K/9 ratio, but that’s dipped to 8.9 this year. His 4.5% barrel rate is encouraging, but he needs to cut down on the walks.
Javier’s profile is mostly pristine. His 3.20 ERA, 2.93 xERA, and 3.04 FIP are all excellent. The one concern is his 3.99 xFIP, but that’s mitigated by his solid 4.8% barrel rate, in my opinion. He strikes out a lot of batters but also does issue too many walks.
As long as both pitchers can limit the walks, I lean toward the Under. These are two good starting pitchers and I’ll put my faith in them. Houston has a superb bullpen (2.62 ERA), although Chicago’s is a concern (4.33 ERA). With one great bullpen and one bullpen, they cancel each other out in my handicap.
Prediction: Under 8 (-120 at DraftKings)
Best bet
The starting pitching matchup is pretty close, although I give a slight lean toward Kopech and the White Sox.
Houston has the better lineup in a vacuum, but games aren’t played in a vacuum and Chicago has been swinging the sticks better over the last 10 days. We saw that yesterday when they roughed up Verlander in a 7-0 win.
Houston has the substantially better bullpen, so I’m going to avoid a full-game bet and target the first five innings instead.
The moneyline can be had for +135 if you like plus-money odds, but I’ll opt for the safer approach and take them +0.5 against the run line.
Pick: White Sox first fiving innings +0.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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