We've got another edition of the Crosstown Classic taking place with the Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs facing off tonight. This will be the opener of a two-game set at Wrigley Field with the Cubbies looking to close the gap on the first-place Brewers in the NL Central and the White Sox trying to turn around an ugly season.
MLB odds opened with the Cubs as -175 home favorites for this contest with the Over/Under at 8.5. Here are my best free MLB picks and predictions for White Sox vs. Cubs on Tuesday, August 15.
White Sox vs Cubs odds
White Sox vs Cubs predictions
These teams are moving in opposite directions. The Chicago Cubs have gone 18-7 in their last 25 games and are in the thick of the NL wild-card race. Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox are 7-17 in their previous 24 and now have the fourth-worst record in the majors.
The Cubs are eighth in the majors in OPS (.752) and have been red-hot at the plate since the All-Star break with that number surging to .845. The White Sox have struggled at the dish all year, ranking 28th in OPS (.680) with that number dipping to .660 since the Midsummer Classic.
There's also a gap on the mound with the White Sox sending Touki Toussaint to the hill opposite Cubs veteran Kyle Hendricks.
Hendricks has struggled with his consistency this year but he's still more reliable than Toussaint and is in the 10th percentile in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and walk rate. He also pitched well against the White Sox three weeks ago, limiting them to four hits and three runs across 6 1/3 innings in a 7-3 Cubs win.
Toussaint has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts and he has struggled with his control, walking 32 batters in 46 1/3 innings this year. Expect the Cubs to get off to a fast start against a struggling White Sox squad and back them on the run line in the first five innings.
My best bet: First five innings run line Cubs -0.5 (-125 at bet365)
White Sox vs Cubs same-game parlay
First five innings Cubs -0.5 (-125)
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 total bases (+145)
Kyle Hendricks Over 3.5 strikeouts (-160)
Cody Bellinger has been among the hottest hitters in baseball, batting .407 with a slugging percentage of .690 in 38 games since the start of July. Over the last month, Bellinger has typically been installed at plus money to go Over 1.5 total bases, a number he has eclipsed in 24 of those 38 games (63.2%).
With Bellinger crushing the ball at home and boasting the platoon advantage versus Toussaint, I'm going to keep betting on this prop until it dries up.
Hendricks isn't exactly a strikeout artist but O/U of 3.5 on his Ks total today is too low. Especially when you consider that he has gone over that number in seven of his last nine starts and is facing a White Sox lineup that ranks 26th in the majors in whiff rate and 30th in chase rate.
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White Sox vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The line for this contest opened with the Cubs at -160 before growing to -175. The total has stayed steady at 8.5 but the Under 8.5 is available at anywhere from +103 to -110 depending on the book.
Hendricks has struggled lately but the Cubs are still 5-5 in his last 10 starts while the White Sox are just 1-5 in Toussaint's previous six.
It's always important to factor in the wind before betting the total of a game at Wrigley and today the wind is blowing towards the infield at about 12 mph.
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Trend to know
The Chicago Cubs have hit the team total Over in 32 of their last 53 games (+8.89 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Cubs
White Sox vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Tuesday, August 15, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Chicago, Marquee Sports Network |
Starting pitchers
Touki Toussaint (1-5, 4.27 ERA): The 27-year-old has spent his MLB career bouncing between the rotation and bullpen, and has made six starts with the White Sox since being claimed off waivers in June. Toussaint ranks in the 30th percentile in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and expected slugging percentage. However, his atrocious control and his inability to make batters miss have resulted in an expected ERA that sits at just 4.75.
Kyle Hendricks (4-6, 3.96 ERA): The final holdover from the Cubs 2016 World Series team, Hendricks has struggled with his consistency this season. He had a 2.64 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and a .200 OBA through his first eight starts of the year but has pitched to a 5.59 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and an OBA of .300 in seven starts since.
