The series between the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians has been even so far with with both sides winning a game apiece.
Chicago has a great chance of winning the decisive game on Sunday, as it will start ace Dylan Cease against Aaron Civale.
Can Cease get a victory for the Sox and keep them in the Wild Card hunt or will the home side extend its lead in the AL Central? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for White Sox vs Guardians on August 21.
White Sox vs Guardians odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The total started at 8.5 and has dropped to 7.5 at WynnBET with the Under at -110 and the Over at -105. The Guardians opened at -105 and have gone up to +115. The White Sox went from -115 to +114.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
White Sox vs Guardians predictions
Picks made on 8/21/2022 at 3:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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White Sox vs Guardians game info
• Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
• Date: Sunday, August 21, 2022
• First pitch: 12:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Peacock
White Sox vs Guardians betting preview
Starting pitchers
Dylan Cease (12-5, 2.09 ERA): There is no doubt that Cease has been the star of the White Sox pitchers. His 2.09 ERA is the lowest of any pitcher — starter or reliever. He recently had a string of 14 consecutive starts with fewer than two earned runs snapped in his last appearance. Last Tuesday, he gave up three runs on six hits in five innings against the Houston Astros. The last time he gave up that many runs was on May 24 and he followed it up with a one-run, two-hit performance.
Aaron Civale (2-5, 5.63 ERA): Civale certainly seems to have returned to form after a stint on the injured list for a sprained right wrist. He returned to the team after 15 days and has been solid in his two starts. The 27-year-old right-hander allowed just one run on three hits in six innings, while striking out 10 Detroit Tigers. In his previous start, the first after returning from the IR, he allowed two runs on three hits through four innings.
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the last five games between the two teams in Cleveland. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Guardians
White Sox vs Guardians picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The previous two games between these teams have been all about pitching. That should be the case again on Sunday when they meet for the series finale.
Starters Dylan Cease and Aaron Civale haven’t allowed three or more runs in a game since the end of May. Cease has faced the Guardians three times and won twice. His only loss was way back on April 21.
Civale has only faced them for just one inning this season. It was the game that he sprained his wrist on July 13 and he immediately went on the IL for 15 days.
It doesn’t seem to matter who is pitching, however, as Cleveland's and Chicago's bats have been mostly silent. In the first game, the White Sox could only muster two runs off six hits off starter Triston McKenzie, who also struck out 14.
The Guardians won the first game, 5-2, but only had nine hits among three pitchers. In Saturday’s game, the White Sox won, 2-0, but only managed five hits — the same amount that the Guardians had.
The lack of offense is a bit puzzling since Chicago has the third-best batting average in the majors. It is also second in hits and 13th in total bases. The Guardians are also decent on offense, sitting eighth in hits and 16th in RBI.
With another pitching duel set for today, I'll ride with Cease to give the Sox enough support to win this rubber match on the road.
Prediction: White Sox moneyline (-118 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
All signs are pointing to a pitcher’s duel as both Cease and Civale have been limiting batters in recent starts. In August, Cease had three appearances and allowed a total of five runs. In July, he was even better, allowing three runs in six games.
Civale has been nearly as effective, though, he doesn’t have much to show for it. In two starts this month he has allowed three runs in two games. In July, he allowed five runs in three outings. The only decision he has gotten was a loss against the New York Yankees on July 2.
The White Sox have gone 6-1-3 on the Under in their last 10 Game 3s of a series. The Under is also 7-2 in their last nine games against a right-handed starter.
The Guardians are 6-1 on the Under in their last seven home games against a team with a winning record. They are also 6-1 in their last seven at home against a right-handed starter.
Expect this game to go Under the total of 7.5, with two elite pitchers continuing to leave hitters puzzled.
Prediction: Under 7.5 (-110 at WynnBET)
Best bet
As dominant as Dylan Cease has been on the mound the last two months, I think there is an opportunity with the prop bet on the total number of strikeouts he will have on Sunday.
The total at DraftKings is set at 5.5. The Over is the favorite at -150, while the Under is set at +115. It is understandable that oddsmakers would automatically think Cease is going to hit the Over.
In his 21 other games not against Cleveland, he has had five or more strikeouts 18 times. But, in the three games Cease has faced against the Guardians, he has had four, nine, and three strikeouts.
Factor in that Cleveland is the No. 1 team in the majors with the fewest strikeouts and the Under starts to look pretty attractive.
Cease will get Cleveland batters out on Sunday, it just won’t be with the whiff.
Dylan Cease Prop Pick: Under 5.5 strikeouts (+115 at DraftKings)
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