White Sox vs Mariners Picks and Predictions: Castillo Puts In Another Deep Shift

The Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners will wrap a three-game set this afternoon in the No. 1 pitcher-friendly park on the slate today, T-Mobile Park.

The Mariners come in as -200 favorites and a lot of that has to do with starting pitcher Luis Castillo who will need to eat some innings thanks to a burned-out Seattle bullpen.

Find out my MLB picks and predictions for White Sox vs. Mariners.

White Sox vs Mariners best odds

White Sox vs Mariners picks and predictions

Luis Castillo’s out market has hit 19.5, which is not a number bettors see every day. But it’s warranted — and might even be a little low.

Castillo has one of the longest leashes in all of baseball and since he’s moved to Seattle, he's averaging 104.2 pitches per start and 18.9 outs. He’s gone just six innings in back-to-back games, but that was vs. the Guardians, who strike out at the lowest rate and baseball and see lots of pitches per at-bat. Luckily for Castillo, the White Sox sit dead last in pitches per plate appearance at 3.78.

Other factors also sit in the favor of the Seattle starter, which includes a likely weaker Chicago lineup with the early game and the park which is a pitcher-friendly 70 degrees (with 53% humidity) with a slight wind blowing in. 

The Seattle bullpen is also worn down with three high-leverage arms having thrown in three of the last four days. Castillo is known for getting deep and the Mariners will need him to pitch into the seventh inning today versus a Chicago lineup that struck out 14 times last night and went 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position. 

THE BAT has him projected for over 21.5 outs, which makes this implied 19.75 outs from the odds a +EV play here.

My best bet: Luis Castillo Over 19.5 outs (-130 at bet365)

White Sox vs Mariners betting preview

Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Moneyline analysis

The White Sox didn’t announce a starter until late last night, and it will be Michael Kopech getting the ball for the visitors, who opened at +165 and have moved to +170.

Kopech is coming off a knee injury that kept him out of action for two weeks. He only threw bullpen sessions and never had a rehab start. THE BAT has him projected for just 71 pitches and 4.11 outs so the Sox could be digging into their bullpen that owns a 5.24 ERA over the last 30 days, which is the sixth-worst mark in baseball.

The Mariners have the obvious advantage in starting pitching with Castillo going. Seattle is 4-2 SU in his six starts with the club and he owns a 2.39 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 43/9 K/B ratio over 37-plus innings. 

Seattle also has one of the most underrated bullpens in baseball, and although they have thrown a lot over the last four days, this is still a stable with a 2.38 ERA over the last 30 days (second), and a 3.26 ERA on the season (fifth). The Mariners have a team ERA of 3.56 which is fifth-best in all of baseball and is better than the Mets and Braves. 

Offensively, both teams match up well with top-heavy lineups but the back end of the Chicago lineup comes in struggling. Luis Robert is hitting in the seventh spot for a reason, Yasmani Grandal is hitting .203, and A.J. Pollock went 0-for-4 last night with six runners left on base.

Tonight’s -200 ML is 50 points shorter than last night’s closing line. This line might be slightly short, as the books could be overpricing the Kopech first start here in what they're expecting to be a close game. 

Over/Under analysis

The series has seen a total of eight runs through two games and T-Mobile Park is playing a role in that. The pitcher-friendly park has some of the coldest air on the board today and with some high humidity and wind blowing in, the park is playing very tough for hitters today.

This total opened at 7 and quickly hit 7.5, but some books are reluctant to move off the 7. The first two games of the series closed at 7.5 and with Kopech likely not getting deep, I wouldn’t want to get down on the Under 7. 

The White Sox team total Under 2.5 is plus money and might be a better avenue for bettors who don’t want to hit the Under 7.

The Sox have been one of the better Under teams with a 59-70-7 O/U record on the season, which is aided primarily by a severely underperforming offense that sits in the Bottom 10 in runs per game and Bottom 5 in home runs per game. 

With both teams off tomorrow, each side could push their bullpens to the max, but with how well the Seattle pen has been all year — and especially of late (2.38 ERA last 30 days) — going from Castillo to this group of Seattle relievers is a tough task and why the Sox have scored just three runs over two games in the series.  

White Sox vs Mariners game info

• Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
• Date: Wednesday, September 7, 2022
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS Chicago, Root Sports

Starting pitchers

Michael Kopech (4-9, 3.58 ERA): Kopech will be making his first start since late August thanks to a knee injury that sidelined the hard-throwing right-hander for two weeks. The starter was cruising with a 3.28 ERA before going down, but Kopech has command issues with 55 walks over 110-plus innings and 13 home runs allowed. He hasn’t thrown a rehab game and instead threw two bullpen sessions to get ready for today, meaning his leash could be short. 

Luis Castillo (2-1, 2.39 ERA): Castillo has fit in well with one of the best rotations in baseball. He's faced four playoff teams in his six starts with the Mariners and owns a 2.39 ERA over those six contests. He's reached the 100-pitch mark in 13 of his last 16 starts and should get deep again today.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Betting trend to know

The Mariners are 8-1 SU in their last nine games vs. the American League Central. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Mariners

Pages related to this topic